The Tulane Green Wave What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Tulane plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Lose Next Game | 2 | 1 | 4% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
Best Case Scenario | 15% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Worst Case Scenario | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Best Case Scenario UAB beats Black Knights |
Worst Case Scenario Black Knights beats UAB |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||
6 of 6 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 83% | 17% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
5 of 6 | 83% | 7 | 1 | 36% | 50% | 14% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
4 of 6 | 67% | 6 | 2 | 3% | 19% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
3 of 6 | 50% | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 22% | 36% | 27% | 9% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
2 of 6 | 33% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 18% | 32% | 30% | 13% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
1 of 6 | 17% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 30% | 33% | 17% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
0 of 6 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 10% | 30% | 37% | 18% | 3% |