The Bellarmine Knights What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Bellarmine plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 27% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 37% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 39% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 26% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 37% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 42% |
|
Best Case Scenario Fla Gulf Coast beats West Georgia Bellarmine beats North Alabama Eastern Kentucky beats Central Arkansas |
Worst Case Scenario West Georgia beats Fla Gulf Coast North Alabama beats Bellarmine Central Arkansas beats Eastern Kentucky |
||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | NT | ||
| 18 of 18 | 100% | 18 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 | 1 | >99% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 16 of 18 | 89% | 16 | 2 | 95% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 18 | 83% | 15 | 3 | 78% | 21% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 18 | 78% | 14 | 4 | 46% | 45% | 9% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 | 5 | 15% | 44% | 33% | 7% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 18 | 67% | 12 | 6 | 2% | 18% | 42% | 31% | 7% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 | 7 | <1% | 2% | 17% | 40% | 32% | 9% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 18 | 56% | 10 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 15% | 37% | 33% | 11% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 1% | 12% | 35% | 37% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 10% | 33% | 38% | 16% | 2% | <1% |
| 7 of 18 | 39% | 7 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 8% | 31% | 40% | 18% | 2% |
| 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 7% | 31% | 42% | 19% |
| 5 of 18 | 28% | 5 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 8% | 37% | 55% |
| 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 13% | 87% |
| 3 of 18 | 17% | 3 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 98% |
| 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 18 | 6% | 1 | 17 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 18 | 0% | 0 | 18 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |