The UCF Knights What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how UCF plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Texas Tech beats Utah |
Worst Case Scenario Utah beats Texas Tech |
|||||||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ||
| 9 of 9 | 100% | 9 | 0 | 87% | 13% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 9 | 89% | 8 | 1 | 45% | 38% | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 9 | 78% | 7 | 2 | 5% | 25% | 35% | 25% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 9 | 67% | 6 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 9 | 56% | 5 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 18% | 30% | 28% | 14% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 13% | 27% | 30% | 19% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 23% | 31% | 24% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 8% | 21% | 34% | 28% | 8% |
| 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 10% | 31% | 57% |
| 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 7% | 93% |