The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6* First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| Northern Arizona (4‑5) vs Montana (6‑5) |
10 | Northern Arizona Wins | 6% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Montana Wins | 3% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||
| Northern Colorado (9‑1) vs Montana St. (4‑6) |
1 | Northern Colorado Wins | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Montana St. Wins | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 12% | ||
| Eastern Washington (2‑8) vs Idaho (6‑4) |
0 | Eastern Washington Wins | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Idaho Wins | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Idaho St. (6‑5) vs Sacramento St. (4‑6) |
0 | Idaho St. Wins | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Sacramento St. Wins | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | ||
| Weber St. (5‑5) vs Portland St. (5‑3) |
0 | Weber St. Wins | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | 5% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | ||