The Most Important Games for the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Lumberjacks final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Northern Arizona Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5* First and Second Round Byes |
6* First and Second Round Byes |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| Northern Arizona (0‑1) vs Montana (1‑1) |
19 | Northern Arizona Wins | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Montana Wins | 4% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | ||
| Eastern Washington (0‑2) vs Portland St. (1‑0) |
1 | Eastern Washington Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Portland St. Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Weber St. (0‑1) vs Utah Tech (1‑1) |
1 | Weber St. Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Utah Tech Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Southern Utah (2‑0) vs Idaho St. (0‑2) |
0 | Southern Utah Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Idaho St. Wins | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Northern Colorado (1‑1) vs Idaho (1‑1) |
0 | Northern Colorado Wins | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Current Probabilities | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Idaho Wins | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 11% | ||