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Fri Dec 13 8:15 am

Big Sky Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Northern Arizona What If?

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Northern Arizona plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Northern Arizona What If?

Next Game - Idaho St. (4‑5)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 20% 17% 14% 12% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3% 2%
Current Standings 0 0 18% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3%
Lose Next Game 0 1 13% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Best Case Scenario 20% 17% 14% 12% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3% 2%
Current Standings 18% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3%
Worst Case Scenario 13% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   Northern Arizona beats Idaho St.
 Worst Case Scenario
   Idaho St. beats Northern Arizona
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 87% 12% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 63% 35% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 31% 53% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 8% 40% 41% 10% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 1% 13% 42% 35% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% 1% 15% 42% 33% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 14% 41% 34% 9% 1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 13% 39% 35% 11% 1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 1% 13% 39% 36% 11% 1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 1% 14% 42% 35% 8%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 2% 19% 50% 29%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 4% 36% 60%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X <1% 14% 86%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament