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Sat Dec 14 9:45 am

Big Sky Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Northern Colorado What If?

The Northern Colorado Bears What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Northern Colorado plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Northern Colorado What If?

Next Game - Weber St. (5‑6)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 16% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 4% 2%
Current Standings 0 0 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4%
Lose Next Game 0 1 10% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Best Case Scenario 16% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 4% 2%
Current Standings 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 4%
Worst Case Scenario 10% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Northern Colorado beats Weber St.
 Worst Case Scenario
   Weber St. beats Northern Colorado
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 87% 13% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 63% 35% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 31% 53% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 8% 41% 41% 10% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 1% 13% 42% 35% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% 1% 15% 42% 34% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 14% 41% 34% 9% 1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 13% 39% 35% 10% 1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 1% 13% 39% 35% 10% 1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 1% 14% 43% 35% 7%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 2% 20% 51% 28%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 4% 37% 59%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X <1% 15% 85%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament