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Sun Feb 5 12:15 am

Horizon Basketball - Week 14 of 16

Northern Kentucky What If?

The Northern Kentucky Norse What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Northern Kentucky plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Northern Kentucky What If?

Next Game - Wright St. (14‑11)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
7***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
8***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
9***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
10 11
Win Next Game 11 4 5% 26% 47% 14% 6% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 10 4 3% 19% 46% 18% 9% 4% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
Lose Next Game 10 5 1% 12% 45% 22% 12% 6% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
7***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
8***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
9***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
10 11
Best Case Scenario 6% 28% 37% 16% 9% 4% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 3% 19% 46% 18% 9% 4% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
Worst Case Scenario 3% 18% 46% 17% 9% 4% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
Best Case Scenario
   Green Bay beats Wis. Milwaukee
   IUPUI beats Wright St.
Worst Case Scenario
   Wis. Milwaukee beats Green Bay
   Wright St. beats IUPUI
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Court Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
7***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
8***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
9***
First Round Home Court
Advantage
10 11
6 of 6 100% 16 4 33% 56% 11% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 6 83% 15 5 8% 51% 41% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 6 67% 14 6 1% 22% 71% 6% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 6 50% 13 7 <1% 3% 60% 31% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 6 33% 12 8 <1% <1% 17% 41% 34% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
1 of 6 17% 11 9 X <1% <1% 8% 36% 44% 12% 1% <1% ^ ^
0 of 6 0% 10 10 X X <1% <1% 3% 27% 54% 16% 1% ^ ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye and second round home court advantage in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • ***denotes first round home court advantage in the post season conference tournament