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Sun Oct 2 5:45 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 9 of 44

Lorient What If?

The Lorient What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lorient What If?

Next Game - Brest (1‑5‑3)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 8 1 1 25 2% 18% 17% 16% 13% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 7 1 1 22 2% 16% 16% 15% 13% 11% 9% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 7 2 1 22 1% 13% 15% 15% 14% 12% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario 3% 19% 17% 15% 13% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2% 16% 16% 15% 13% 11% 9% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 12% 15% 15% 14% 12% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Lorient beats Brest
   Lille beats Lens
 Worst Case Scenario
   Brest beats Lorient
   Lens beats Lille
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
29 of 29 100% 36 1 1 109 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 29 93% 34 3 1 103 88% 12% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 29 90% 33 4 1 100 70% 30% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 32 5 1 97 49% 51% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 29 83% 31 6 1 94 30% 67% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 30 7 1 91 16% 74% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 29 76% 29 8 1 88 7% 69% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 29 72% 28 9 1 85 3% 54% 37% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 29 69% 27 10 1 82 1% 34% 46% 18% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 29 66% 26 11 1 79 <1% 16% 43% 31% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 29 62% 25 12 1 76 <1% 6% 28% 40% 21% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 29 59% 24 13 1 73 <1% 1% 13% 34% 35% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 29 55% 23 14 1 70 <1% <1% 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
15 of 29 52% 22 15 1 67 <1% <1% 1% 7% 25% 37% 23% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
14 of 29 48% 21 16 1 64 <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 30% 36% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
13 of 29 45% 20 17 1 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 33% 33% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 29 41% 19 18 1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 33% 31% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 29 38% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 29 34% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 20% 34% 28% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 29 31% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 33% 28% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 29 28% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 34% 29% 11% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 29 24% 14 23 1 43 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 19% 34% 30% 11% 2% <1%
6 of 29 21% 13 24 1 40 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 29% 11% 2%
5 of 29 17% 12 25 1 37 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 13%
4 of 29 14% 11 26 1 34 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 42%
3 of 29 10% 10 27 1 31 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 77%
2 of 29 7% 9 28 1 28 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
0 of 29 0% 7 30 1 22 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League Qualifiers