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Sun Jan 15 5:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 25 of 44

Lorient What If?

The Lorient What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lorient What If?

Next Game - Stade Rennais (11‑4‑4)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 10 5 5 35 <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 20% 26% 17% 10% 6% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 9 5 5 32 <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 17% 24% 18% 12% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 9 6 5 32 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 14% 25% 19% 14% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 20% 26% 17% 10% 6% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 17% 24% 18% 12% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 14% 25% 19% 14% 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Lorient beats Stade Rennais
 Worst Case Scenario
   Stade Rennais beats Lorient
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
19 of 19 100% 28 5 5 89 32% 62% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 19 95% 27 6 5 86 13% 63% 22% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 19 89% 26 7 5 83 3% 43% 44% 10% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 19 84% 25 8 5 80 1% 18% 48% 30% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 19 79% 24 9 5 77 <1% 4% 29% 46% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 19 74% 23 10 5 74 <1% 1% 10% 39% 39% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 19 68% 22 11 5 71 <1% <1% 2% 18% 44% 31% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 19 63% 21 12 5 68 <1% <1% <1% 5% 29% 48% 18% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 19 58% 20 13 5 65 <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 43% 40% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 19 53% 19 14 5 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 23% 53% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
9 of 19 47% 18 15 5 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 40% 39% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 19 42% 17 16 5 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 14% 38% 34% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 19 37% 16 17 5 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 34% 33% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6 of 19 32% 15 18 5 50 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5 of 19 26% 14 19 5 47 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 29% 37% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 19 21% 13 20 5 44 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 26% 40% 22% 4% <1% <1%
3 of 19 16% 12 21 5 41 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 25% 40% 23% 6% <1%
2 of 19 11% 11 22 5 38 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 39% 26% 7%
1 of 19 5% 10 23 5 35 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 39% 36%
0 of 19 0% 9 24 5 32 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 79%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League Qualifiers