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Sun Oct 6 5:30 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 9 of 40

Marseille What If?

The Marseille What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Marseille What If?

Next Game - Montpellier (1‑5‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 5 1 2 17 12% 23% 18% 14% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 1 2 14 11% 22% 18% 14% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 4 2 2 14 8% 19% 17% 14% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 12% 25% 18% 13% 10% 7% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 11% 22% 18% 14% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 7% 19% 17% 15% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Saint-Etienne beats Lens
   Nantes beats Nice
   Marseille beats Montpellier
 Worst Case Scenario
   Lens beats Saint-Etienne
   Nice beats Nantes
   Montpellier beats Marseille
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
27 of 27 100% 31 1 2 95 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 27 93% 29 3 2 89 90% 10% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 27 89% 28 4 2 86 74% 26% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 27 85% 27 5 2 83 55% 43% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 27 81% 26 6 2 80 35% 57% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 27 78% 25 7 2 77 19% 60% 20% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 27 74% 24 8 2 74 9% 49% 36% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 27 70% 23 9 2 71 3% 30% 45% 19% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 27 67% 22 10 2 68 1% 13% 39% 35% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 27 63% 21 11 2 65 <1% 4% 22% 40% 26% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 27 59% 20 12 2 62 <1% 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 27 56% 19 13 2 59 <1% <1% 2% 11% 29% 35% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 27 52% 18 14 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 32% 33% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 27 48% 17 15 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 33% 32% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
12 of 27 44% 16 16 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 27 41% 15 17 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 36% 30% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 27 37% 14 18 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 27 33% 13 19 2 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 37% 26% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 27 30% 12 20 2 38 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% 1% <1% <1%
7 of 27 26% 11 21 2 35 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1% <1%
6 of 27 22% 10 22 2 32 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% 1%
5 of 27 19% 9 23 2 29 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 38% 26% 7%
4 of 27 15% 8 24 2 26 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 24% 41% 28%
3 of 27 11% 7 25 2 23 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 30% 63%
2 of 27 7% 6 26 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 90%
0 of 27 0% 4 28 2 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff