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Sun Sep 14 6:00 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 5 of 40

Toulouse What If?

The Toulouse What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Toulouse What If?

Next Game - Auxerre (1‑3)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 3 2 0 9 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5%
Current Standings 2 2 0 6 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 9%
Lose Next Game 2 3 0 6 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 12%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5%
Current Standings 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 9%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Best Case Scenario
   Toulouse beats Auxerre
 Worst Case Scenario
   Auxerre beats Toulouse
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
30 of 30 100% 32 2 0 96 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 27 7 0 81 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 22 12 0 66 89% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 30 63% 21 13 0 63 71% 26% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 30 60% 20 14 0 60 40% 42% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 30 57% 19 15 0 57 10% 33% 35% 17% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
16 of 30 53% 18 16 0 54 1% 6% 19% 33% 27% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
15 of 30 50% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 29% 28% 15% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 30 47% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 21% 30% 24% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 30 43% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 11% 24% 30% 22% 8% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 30 40% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 19% 32% 27% 12% 3%
11 of 30 37% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 36% 33%
10 of 30 33% 12 22 0 36 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 19% 77%
5 of 30 17% 7 27 0 21 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 2 32 0 6 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff