The Ball State Cardinals What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Ball State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
Win Next Game | 6 | 3 | 5% | 16% | 27% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 5 | 3 | 4% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Lose Next Game | 5 | 4 | 2% | 8% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
Best Case Scenario | 5% | 16% | 28% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 4% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Worst Case Scenario | 2% | 8% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Best Case Scenario Ball State beats Bowling Green Eastern Michigan beats Ohio Western Michigan beats Northern Illinois |
Worst Case Scenario Bowling Green beats Ball State Ohio beats Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
10 of 10 | 100% | 15 | 3 | 73% | 27% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
9 of 10 | 90% | 14 | 4 | 33% | 57% | 10% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
8 of 10 | 80% | 13 | 5 | 6% | 44% | 44% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
7 of 10 | 70% | 12 | 6 | <1% | 11% | 49% | 35% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
6 of 10 | 60% | 11 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 17% | 48% | 29% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
5 of 10 | 50% | 10 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 20% | 44% | 28% | 6% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
4 of 10 | 40% | 9 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 2% | 16% | 41% | 33% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
3 of 10 | 30% | 8 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 11% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
2 of 10 | 20% | 7 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 7% | 35% | 41% | 15% | 2% | <1% |
1 of 10 | 10% | 6 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 5% | 28% | 44% | 21% | 1% |
0 of 10 | 0% | 5 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 25% | 59% | 14% |