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Sat Jan 28 11:15 pm

MAC Basketball - Week 13 of 17

Ball State What If?

The Ball State Cardinals What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Ball State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Ball State What If?

Next Game - Bowling Green (10‑11)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Win Next Game 6 3 5% 16% 27% 25% 15% 8% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 3 4% 13% 23% 23% 17% 10% 6% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 5 4 2% 8% 19% 23% 19% 13% 9% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Best Case Scenario 5% 16% 28% 27% 14% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4% 13% 23% 23% 17% 10% 6% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 8% 18% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Ball State beats Bowling Green
   Eastern Michigan beats Ohio
   Western Michigan beats Northern Illinois
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bowling Green beats Ball State
   Ohio beats Eastern Michigan
   Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
10 of 10 100% 15 3 73% 27% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 10 90% 14 4 33% 57% 10% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 10 80% 13 5 6% 44% 44% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 10 70% 12 6 <1% 11% 49% 35% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 10 60% 11 7 <1% 1% 17% 48% 29% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 10 50% 10 8 <1% <1% 2% 20% 44% 28% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
4 of 10 40% 9 9 X X <1% 2% 16% 41% 33% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^
3 of 10 30% 8 10 X X X <1% 1% 11% 37% 40% 10% 1% <1% <1%
2 of 10 20% 7 11 X X X X <1% <1% 7% 35% 41% 15% 2% <1%
1 of 10 10% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% 5% 28% 44% 21% 1%
0 of 10 0% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% 2% 25% 59% 14%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament