The Most Important Games for the UMass Minutemen are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Minutemen final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. UMass Minutemen fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
UMass Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |||
| UMass (0‑6) vs Buffalo (3‑3) |
0 | UMass Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 28% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Buffalo Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 23% | 50% | ||
| Akron (2‑5) vs Ball State (2‑4) |
0 | Akron Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 46% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Ball State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 44% | ||
| Eastern Michigan (2‑5) vs Miami OH (3‑3) |
0 | Eastern Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 23% | 47% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Miami OH Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 14% | 21% | 42% | ||
| Central Michigan (3‑3) vs Bowling Green (3‑3) |
0 | Central Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 21% | 45% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Bowling Green Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 21% | 44% | ||
| Kent State (2‑4) vs Toledo (3‑3) |
0 | Kent State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 44% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Toledo Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Ohio (3‑3) vs Northern Illinois (1‑5) |
0 | Ohio Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 22% | 42% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 43% | ||
| Northern Illinois Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 20% | 48% | ||