The UMass Minutemen What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how UMass plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 10% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 3% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Current Standings | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
|
Best Case Scenario None |
Worst Case Scenario None |
||||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 8 of 8 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 93% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 8 | 88% | 7 | 1 | 58% | 35% | 7% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 9% | 33% | 36% | 18% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 8 | 63% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 2% | 12% | 30% | 33% | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 8 | 38% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 18% | 34% | 30% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
| 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 18% | 36% | 32% | 9% |
| 1 of 8 | 13% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 8% | 34% | 57% |
| 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 7% | 93% |