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Thu Sep 10 10:30 pm

MLB - Week 25 of 27

Brewers What If?

The Brewers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Brewers play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Brewers What If?

Next Game - Reds (69‑77)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 92 56 75% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
Current Standings 91 56 71% 27% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 91 57 62% 34% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Current Series - Reds (69‑77) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Brewers Sweeps 94 56 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^
Current Standings 91 56 71% 27% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reds Sweeps 91 59 42% 48% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 75% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
Current Standings 71% 27% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 62% 34% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Brewers beats Reds
 Worst Case Scenario
   Reds beats Brewers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
15 of 15 100% 106 56 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 105 57 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 104 58 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 103 59 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 15 73% 102 60 97% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 15 67% 101 61 91% 9% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 15 60% 100 62 79% 21% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 15 53% 99 63 61% 38% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 15 47% 98 64 41% 56% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 15 40% 97 65 23% 67% 10% ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 15 33% 96 66 10% 65% 25% ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 15 27% 95 67 3% 51% 46% <1% <1% ^ ^
3 of 15 20% 94 68 1% 32% 67% <1% <1% <1% ^
2 of 15 13% 93 69 <1% 14% 85% 1% <1% <1% ^
1 of 15 7% 92 70 <1% 4% 92% 3% 1% <1% ^
0 of 15 0% 91 71 <1% 1% 88% 5% 7% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs