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Sun Dec 15 12:45 am

Mountain West Basketball - Week 7 of 18

New Mexico What If?

The New Mexico Lobos What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how New Mexico plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

New Mexico What If?

Next Game - Colorado St. (5‑5)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6 7 8 9 10 11
Win Next Game 2 0 9% 12% 15% 15% 15% 13% 10% 6% 3% 1% <1%
Current Standings 1 0 8% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 8% 5% 2% 1%
Lose Next Game 1 1 5% 9% 13% 14% 15% 14% 12% 9% 6% 3% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6 7 8 9 10 11
Best Case Scenario 8% 12% 13% 15% 14% 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 1%
Current Standings 8% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 8% 5% 2% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 8% 11% 13% 14% 14% 13% 10% 8% 5% 2% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Air Force beats Boise St.
 Worst Case Scenario
   Boise St. beats Air Force
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6 7 8 9 10 11
19 of 19 100% 20 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 19 95% 19 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 19 89% 18 2 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 19 84% 17 3 86% 14% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 19 79% 16 4 57% 40% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 19 74% 15 5 25% 53% 20% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 19 68% 14 6 6% 37% 44% 13% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 19 63% 13 7 1% 11% 42% 37% 9% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 19 58% 12 8 <1% 1% 17% 44% 32% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 19 53% 11 9 <1% <1% 2% 22% 46% 26% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 19 47% 10 10 X <1% <1% 4% 27% 44% 21% 3% <1% <1% ^
8 of 19 42% 9 11 X X <1% <1% 6% 33% 43% 16% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 19 37% 8 12 X X X <1% <1% 10% 37% 39% 12% 1% <1%
6 of 19 32% 7 13 X X X X <1% 1% 13% 42% 35% 9% <1%
5 of 19 26% 6 14 X X X X X <1% 2% 19% 47% 29% 4%
4 of 19 21% 5 15 X X X X X X <1% 3% 29% 50% 19%
3 of 19 16% 4 16 X X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 45% 48%
2 of 19 11% 3 17 X X X X X X X X <1% 22% 78%
1 of 19 5% 2 18 X X X X X X X X X 5% 95%
0 of 19 0% 1 19 X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament