NCAA Basketball - Week 6 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Is currently ranked below the cutline but still can win its conference tournament thus receiving an automatic NCAA tournament bid, and
Has a conference opponent ranked above the cutline that can also win that conference tournament.

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 43 and 44 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 108 teams in 11 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 11 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank	Team	ConferenceConf	MWP	Record		Probability of Winning Its Conference Tournament
Rank	Team	ConferenceConf	MWP	W	L	Probability of Winning Its Conference Tournament
46	SMU	ACCACC	75	8	2	8%
49	Stanford	ACCACC	75	8	2	8%
60	Florida St.	ACCACC	70	7	3	5%
62	Wake Forest	ACCACC	70	8	3	6%
74	North Carolina	ACCACC	68	5	4	5%
78	Louisville	ACCACC	67	6	4	4%
94	N.C. State	ACCACC	62	7	3	3%
98	Virginia	ACCACC	62	5	4	3%
112	California	ACCACC	60	6	4	2%
123	Syracuse	ACCACC	58	5	4	2%
124	Notre Dame	ACCACC	58	6	5	2%
133	Boston College	ACCACC	56	6	4	2%
208	Georgia Tech	ACCACC	44	4	5	<1%
214	Virginia Tech	ACCACC	43	3	6	<1%
247	Miami	ACCACC	40	3	7	<1%

109	Rice	American AthleticAm. Athletic	60	7	3	8%
117	North Texas	American AthleticAm. Athletic	59	5	3	7%
139	Florida Atlantic	American AthleticAm. Athletic	55	6	5	5%
146	South Florida	American AthleticAm. Athletic	54	5	4	5%
174	E. Carolina	American AthleticAm. Athletic	49	7	4	3%
175	Temple	American AthleticAm. Athletic	49	5	4	3%
221	Charlotte	American AthleticAm. Athletic	43	4	4	2%
235	Texas-San Antonio	American AthleticAm. Athletic	41	3	5	1%
239	UAB	American AthleticAm. Athletic	41	6	5	1%
284	Tulane	American AthleticAm. Athletic	34	5	6	<1%
287	Tulsa	American AthleticAm. Athletic	34	4	6	<1%

51	St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	74	9	1	14%
72	Dayton	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	68	8	2	9%
76	Davidson	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	67	7	2	9%
91	VCU	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	63	8	2	7%
93	La Salle	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	63	6	3	7%
103	Geo. Washington	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	61	8	2	6%
127	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	57	6	3	4%
132	George Mason	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	57	7	3	4%
166	St. Joseph's	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	50	5	4	2%
194	Fordham	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	47	6	5	1%
261	Richmond	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	38	4	5	<1%
305	UMass	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	31	3	7	<1%
340	Duquesne	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	23	2	8	<1%

45	Nebraska	Big 10Big 10	75	6	2	4%
50	Iowa	Big 10Big 10	74	7	2	5%
52	Maryland	Big 10Big 10	73	8	2	4%
63	NorthwesternN. Western	Big 10Big 10	70	7	3	3%
73	Ohio St.	Big 10Big 10	68	6	3	2%
86	Washington	Big 10Big 10	66	7	3	2%
92	Rutgers	Big 10Big 10	63	6	4	1%
97	USC	Big 10Big 10	62	6	4	1%
134	Minnesota	Big 10Big 10	56	6	5	1%

48	Baylor	Big 12Big 12	75	7	3	7%
53	West Virginia	Big 12Big 12	73	6	2	6%
57	Cincinnati	Big 12Big 12	71	7	1	5%
59	Houston	Big 12Big 12	71	6	3	5%
65	Texas Tech	Big 12Big 12	70	7	2	5%
66	BYU	Big 12Big 12	69	7	2	4%
75	Oklahoma St.	Big 12Big 12	67	6	2	4%
90	Kansas St.	Big 12Big 12	64	6	3	3%
102	Arizona	Big 12Big 12	61	4	3	2%
105	Utah	Big 12Big 12	61	6	2	2%
113	TCU	Big 12Big 12	60	5	4	2%

55	Xavier	Big EastBig East	72	8	2	9%
58	Creighton	Big EastBig East	71	7	3	9%
64	Butler	Big EastBig East	70	7	3	8%
68	Georgetown	Big EastBig East	69	7	2	8%
71	Providence	Big EastBig East	68	7	4	8%
83	UConn	Big EastBig East	66	7	3	6%
95	DePaul	Big EastBig East	62	7	2	5%
121	Villanova	Big EastBig East	58	7	4	3%
176	Seton Hall	Big EastBig East	49	5	5	1%

122	CSU Northridge	Big WestBig West	58	7	3	11%
125	UC Riverside	Big WestBig West	58	6	4	12%
141	UC Davis	Big WestBig West	55	5	4	10%
163	UCSB	Big WestBig West	51	6	3	6%
171	Cal Poly	Big WestBig West	50	5	6	5%
200	Hawai'i	Big WestBig West	45	5	3	3%
241	CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild	Big WestBig West	41	4	6	2%
288	CSU Fullerton	Big WestBig West	34	3	8	1%
310	Long Beach St.	Big WestBig West	30	4	8	1%

47	Bradley	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	75	8	1	22%
82	Belmont	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	66	8	2	13%
108	Murray State	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	60	6	2	9%
145	Northern Iowa	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	54	5	4	6%
177	Illinois St.	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	49	5	4	3%
183	Missouri St.	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	48	5	4	3%
195	Indiana St.	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	47	6	4	3%
204	UIC	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	45	6	4	2%
217	Valparaiso	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	43	4	4	2%
234	Southern Illinois	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	42	4	6	2%
283	Evansville	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	34	3	6	1%

44	Nevada	Mountain WestMntn West	75	7	2	19%
84	New Mexico	Mountain WestMntn West	66	7	3	11%
101	Boise St.	Mountain WestMntn West	61	6	3	8%
138	Colorado St.	Mountain WestMntn West	55	5	4	5%
148	UNLV	Mountain WestMntn West	53	4	4	4%
190	Wyoming	Mountain WestMntn West	47	5	4	2%
262	San José State	Mountain WestMntn West	38	5	6	1%
286	Fresno St.	Mountain WestMntn West	34	3	7	<1%
319	Air Force	Mountain WestMntn West	28	3	7	<1%

77	Texas	SECSEC	67	7	2	1%
85	South Carolina	SECSEC	66	6	3	1%

56	Washington St.	West CoastWest Coast	71	7	2	14%
67	San Francisco	West CoastWest Coast	69	8	2	11%
110	Oregon St.	West CoastWest Coast	60	6	2	7%
111	Santa Clara	West CoastWest Coast	60	5	5	6%
157	Loyola Marymount	West CoastWest Coast	52	4	4	3%
242	Pacific	West CoastWest Coast	40	5	6	1%
254	Pepperdine	West CoastWest Coast	38	4	6	<1%
297	Portland	West CoastWest Coast	32	3	6	<1%
325	San Diego	West CoastWest Coast	27	3	7	<1%

Notes
X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny