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Mon Mar 4 12:45 am

NCAA Basketball - Week 17 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities

Will your team receive an invitation to the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that your college team receives a tournament invite depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games (minus its conference tournament final), current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the cutline between ranked teams 42 and 43. Teams above this line should receive a NCAA Tournament invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line will receive a tournament invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament.

Last 6 teams in - Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Syracuse, Texas Tech, South Florida
First 6 teams out - Texas, St. Mary's, Richmond, Princeton, Oklahoma, Memphis

NCAA Basketball Tournament Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record NCAA Tournament Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Minus CF Current Lose Out
1 Purdue Big 10Big 10 114 26 3 100% 100% 100%
2 Houston Big 12Big 12 110 26 3 100% 100% 100%
3 UConn Big EastBig East 107 26 3 100% 100% 100%
4 Tennessee SECSEC 104 23 6 100% 100% 100%
5 North Carolina ACCACC 101 23 6 100% 100% 100%
6 Arizona PAC 12PAC 12 98 23 6 100% 100% 100%
7 South Carolina SECSEC 97 24 5 100% 100% 100%
8 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 96 23 6 100% 100% 100%
9 Auburn SECSEC 96 22 7 100% 100% 100%
10 Duke ACCACC 95 23 6 100% 100% 100%
11 Baylor Big 12Big 12 94 21 8 100% >99% >99%
12 Marquette Big EastBig East 94 22 7 100% 100% 100%
13 Illinois Big 10Big 10 93 22 7 100% 100% 100%
14 Alabama SECSEC 93 19 9 100% 100% 100%
15 Kansas Big 12Big 12 93 21 8 100% >99% >99%
16 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 93 23 5 100% >99% 97%
17 San Diego St. Mountain WestMntn West 92 22 7 100% >99% 99%
18 Creighton Big EastBig East 91 22 8 100% 100% 100%
19 Dayton Atlantic 10Atl. 10 91 22 6 100% >99% 97%
20 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 90 24 6 100% >99% 94%
21 Kentucky SECSEC 89 21 8 100% >99% 74%
22 Clemson ACCACC 88 20 9 100% 98% 63%
23 BYU Big 12Big 12 88 21 8 100% 97% 44%
24 Washington St. PAC 12PAC 12 88 23 7 100% 98% 79%
25 Indiana St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 87 26 5 100% >99% 98%
26 Florida SECSEC 87 20 9 100% 95% 3%
27 Drake Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 86 25 6 100% 99% 96%
28 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West 86 21 8 100% 84% 11%
29 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 86 22 7 100% 84% <1%
30 Virginia ACCACC 85 21 9 100% 85% 3%
31 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 85 21 9 100% 87% <1%
32 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 85 21 9 100% 85% 2%
33 Ole Miss SECSEC 85 20 9 100% 75% X
34 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 84 20 9 100% 73% X
35 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 84 21 8 100% 71% X
36 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 84 19 10 100% 67% <1%
37 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 84 18 11 100% 66% X
38 Gonzaga West CoastWest Coast 84 23 6 77% 63% 8%
39 Grand Canyon WACWAC 84 25 4 69% 65% X
40 Syracuse ACCACC 83 20 10 100% 63% 1%
41 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 83 20 9 100% 59% X
42 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 83 22 5 98% 58% X
Cutline - Click Here to View 110 Line Movers
43 Texas Big 12Big 12 83 19 10 100% 53% X
44 St. Mary's West CoastWest Coast 82 24 7 11% 41% <1%
45 Richmond Atlantic 10Atl. 10 82 22 7 >99% 46% X
46 Princeton Ivy LeagueIvy League 82 23 3 11% 50% X
47 Oklahoma Big 12Big 12 82 19 10 100% 46% X
48 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 82 22 8 95% 37% X
49 Colorado PAC 12PAC 12 81 20 9 99% 37% X
50 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 80 17 11 100% 28% X
51 TCU Big 12Big 12 80 19 10 >99% 23% X
52 Samford SouthernSouthern 79 26 5 X 37% X
53 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 79 28 3 <1% 37% X
54 Oregon PAC 12PAC 12 78 19 9 58% 15% X
55 Loyola Chicago Atlantic 10Atl. 10 78 21 8 11% 15% X
56 Pittsburgh ACCACC 77 19 10 58% 7% X
57 Utah PAC 12PAC 12 77 18 11 33% 8% X
58 Seton Hall Big EastBig East 77 18 11 2% 8% X
59 Wake Forest ACCACC 77 18 11 32% 6% X
60 St. John's Big EastBig East 76 17 12 <1% 6% X
61 Appalachian St.App.St. SunbeltSunbelt 76 26 5 X 34% X
62 McNeese SouthlandSouth-land 76 26 3 X 61% X
63 Bradley Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 75 21 10 X 15% X
64 Villanova Big EastBig East 75 17 12 3% 6% X
65 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 75 18 12 6% 2% X
66 Providence Big EastBig East 75 18 11 2% 5% X
67 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 75 17 12 24% 2% X
68 Texas A&M SECSEC 75 16 13 78% 2% X
69 VCU Atlantic 10Atl. 10 74 19 10 <1% 11% X
70 Iowa Big 10Big 10 74 17 12 27% 3% X
71 N.C. State ACCACC 74 17 12 31% 3% X
72 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 74 18 10 4% 6% X
73 Virginia Tech ACCACC 73 16 13 <1% 3% X
74 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 73 17 12 51% 2% X
75 Indiana Big 10Big 10 73 16 13 3% 2% X
76 Vermont America EastAmerica East 73 24 6 X 50% X
77 Cornell Ivy LeagueIvy League 72 21 6 X 22% X
78 Yale Ivy LeagueIvy League 72 20 8 X 29% X
79 Butler Big EastBig East 72 17 13 X 2% X
80 LSU SECSEC 71 16 13 X 1% X
81 Tarleton St. WACWAC 71 22 7 X 24% X
82 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 71 18 11 <1% 2% X
83 Charleston CoastalCoastal 71 24 7 X 28% X
84 Florida St. ACCACC 71 15 14 X 2% X
85 UC Irvine Big WestBig West 71 22 8 X 48% X
86 Duquesne Atlantic 10Atl. 10 71 18 11 X 5% X
87 St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Atlantic 10Atl. 10 70 18 10 X 6% X
88 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast 70 22 9 X 13% X
89 Xavier Big EastBig East 70 15 14 X 2% X
90 Southern Methodist American AthleticAm. Athletic 70 19 10 X 8% X
91 UMass Atlantic 10Atl. 10 70 19 10 X 6% X
92 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 18 11 X 7% X
93 Georgia SECSEC 68 15 14 X 1% X
94 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 68 15 14 X 1% X
95 UCF Big 12Big 12 68 15 13 X 1% X
96 Washington PAC 12PAC 12 68 16 14 X 3% X
97 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 67 21 8 X 32% X
98 George Mason Atlantic 10Atl. 10 67 18 11 X 3% X
99 Akron MACMAC 66 21 8 X 33% X
100 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 66 17 11 X 8% X
101 High Point Big SouthBig South 66 24 7 X 34% X
102 Boston College ACCACC 66 15 14 X 1% X
103 Arkansas SECSEC 66 14 15 X 1% X
104 Miami ACCACC 66 15 14 X 1% X
105 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10Atl. 10 65 18 11 X 4% X
106 Arizona St. PAC 12PAC 12 65 14 15 X 2% X
107 Belmont Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 65 19 12 X 7% X
108 Northern Iowa Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 65 18 13 X 8% X
109 Western Carolina SouthernSouthern 65 22 9 X 16% X
110 Maryland Big 10Big 10 64 15 15 X 1% X
111 Santa Clara West CoastWest Coast 63 19 12 X 9% X
112 UNC Wilmington CoastalCoastal 63 21 9 X 16% X
113 Southern Illinois Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 63 19 12 X 5% X
114 Georgia Tech ACCACC 63 13 16 X <1% X
115 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 16 12 X 3% X
116 Oakland HorizonHorizon 62 20 11 X 27% X
117 N.C. Greensboro SouthernSouthern 61 21 10 X 16% X
118 Morehead St. Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 61 23 8 X 40% X
119 Penn State Big 10Big 10 61 14 16 X <1% X
120 Eastern Washington Big SkyBig Sky 60 20 10 X 29% X
121 Toledo MACMAC 59 18 11 X 22% X
122 Hofstra CoastalCoastal 59 19 12 X 16% X
123 UCLA PAC 12PAC 12 58 14 14 X 1% X
124 UC San Diego Big WestBig West 58 20 10 X X X
125 N.C. Asheville Big SouthBig South 58 20 11 X 25% X
126 UMass-LowellUMA-Lowell America EastAmerica East 58 20 8 X 22% X
127 Drexel CoastalCoastal 58 20 11 X 15% X
128 Montana Big SkyBig Sky 57 20 10 X 21% X
129 California PAC 12PAC 12 57 13 17 X 1% X
130 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 57 18 11 X 20% X
131 Davidson Atlantic 10Atl. 10 57 15 14 X 1% X
132 ChattanoogaChattan. SouthernSouthern 57 20 11 X 12% X
133 USC PAC 12PAC 12 57 12 17 X 1% X
134 Weber St. Big SkyBig Sky 57 20 10 X 21% X
135 Notre Dame ACCACC 56 12 17 X <1% X
136 Seattle WACWAC 56 18 11 X 9% X
137 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 56 12 17 X <1% X
138 Youngstown St. HorizonHorizon 56 22 9 X 18% X
139 Lipscomb Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 56 20 11 X 24% X
140 Stanford PAC 12PAC 12 55 12 17 X 1% X
141 Colgate Patriot LeaguePatriot League 55 22 9 X 61% X
142 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 55 20 11 X 9% X
143 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 55 13 16 X 1% X
144 Western Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 55 19 10 X 17% X
145 Missouri St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 55 16 15 X 2% X
146 UT Arlington WACWAC 55 17 13 X 8% X
147 Quinnipiac Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 54 21 8 X 26% X
148 Towson CoastalCoastal 53 18 13 X 7% X
149 Bryant America EastAmerica East 53 18 12 X 12% X
150 Oregon St. PAC 12PAC 12 52 12 17 X 1% X
151 Tenn-MartinTN-Martin Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 52 21 10 X 29% X
152 LA Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 51 18 13 X 5% X
153 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 51 17 12 X 12% X
154 Stetson Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 51 19 12 X 24% X
155 Long Beach St. Big WestBig West 51 18 12 X 14% X
156 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 51 9 20 X <1% X
157 Michigan Big 10Big 10 51 8 22 X <1% X
158 Illinois St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 50 15 16 X 1% X
159 Monmouth CoastalCoastal 50 17 14 X 5% X
160 Harvard Ivy LeagueIvy League 50 14 12 X X X
161 Wofford SouthernSouthern 50 17 14 X 7% X
162 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 13 15 X 1% X
163 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 49 16 15 X 6% X
164 Evansville Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 49 15 16 X 1% X
165 Wichita St. American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 13 17 X 1% X
166 San Diego West CoastWest Coast 49 16 14 X 2% X
167 Northern Colorado Big SkyBig Sky 49 18 12 X 14% X
168 Fort Wayne HorizonHorizon 49 20 11 X 8% X
169 Delaware CoastalCoastal 49 18 13 X 6% X
170 Wright St. HorizonHorizon 49 18 13 X 13% X
171 La Salle Atlantic 10Atl. 10 48 15 15 X <1% X
172 South Dakota St. SummitSummit 48 19 12 X 24% X
173 Southern SouthwesternSWAC 48 16 12 X 23% X
174 Texas A&M C.C. SouthlandSouth-land 48 19 10 X 20% X
175 Ohio MACMAC 48 17 12 X 12% X
176 Fairfield Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 48 18 11 X 20% X
177 Hawai'i Big WestBig West 48 17 13 X 7% X
178 Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb Big SouthBig South 48 16 15 X 13% X
179 Saint Louis Atlantic 10Atl. 10 48 11 18 X <1% X
180 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 15 14 X 1% X
181 UC Davis Big WestBig West 47 17 12 X 15% X
182 Central Michigan MACMAC 47 16 13 X 10% X
183 Stony Brook CoastalCoastal 47 17 14 X 5% X
184 E. Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 47 14 15 X 1% X
185 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10Atl. 10 47 14 15 X <1% X
186 Cleveland St. HorizonHorizon 47 18 13 X 8% X
187 Western Illinois Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 47 20 11 X 16% X
188 Stephen F. Austin WACWAC 47 15 13 X 3% X
189 Green Bay HorizonHorizon 46 18 13 X 12% X
190 E. Tennessee St. SouthernSouthern 46 16 15 X 5% X
191 UALR Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 46 20 11 - X -
192 Eastern Kentucky Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 46 17 13 X 19% X
193 New Hampshire America EastAmerica East 46 15 13 X 8% X
194 Norfolk St. MideasternMid-Eastern 46 19 10 X 38% X
195 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West 46 11 18 X <1% X
196 Vanderbilt SECSEC 46 8 21 X <1% X
197 Furman SouthernSouthern 46 16 15 X 4% X
198 Utah Valley WACWAC 45 14 15 X 3% X
199 Rhode Island Atlantic 10Atl. 10 45 11 18 X <1% X
200 Missouri SECSEC 45 8 21 X <1% X
201 Winthrop Big SouthBig South 45 17 14 X 9% X
202 Merrimack NortheastNorth East 45 19 11 X 36% X
203 Fordham Atlantic 10Atl. 10 45 12 17 X <1% X
204 Grambling SouthwesternSWAC 45 15 13 X 21% X
205 Abilene Christian WACWAC 45 14 15 X 3% X
206 CSU Northridge Big WestBig West 45 18 13 X 6% X
207 Bowling Green MACMAC 44 17 12 X 8% X
208 Austin Peay Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 44 17 14 X 9% X
209 Northern Kentucky HorizonHorizon 44 17 14 X 8% X
210 St. Peter's Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 44 16 11 X 15% X
211 Longwood Big SouthBig South 44 18 13 X 9% X
212 Murray State Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 44 12 19 X <1% X
213 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 43 16 15 X 2% X
214 UCSB Big WestBig West 43 15 13 X 4% X
215 Wis. Milwaukee HorizonHorizon 43 17 14 X 7% X
216 St. Thomas SummitSummit 43 19 12 X 18% X
217 Nicholls St. SouthlandSouth-land 43 16 13 X 8% X
218 Georgetown Big EastBig East 43 9 20 X <1% X
219 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 43 15 15 X 6% X
220 Texas Southern SouthwesternSWAC 42 13 14 X 17% X
221 Central Conn. NortheastNorth East 42 19 10 X 37% X
222 Texas State SunbeltSunbelt 42 14 17 X 1% X
223 Louisville ACCACC 42 8 21 X <1% X
224 California Baptist WACWAC 41 15 14 X 2% X
225 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 11 18 X <1% X
226 Mercer SouthernSouthern 41 15 16 X 2% X
227 Portland St. Big SkyBig Sky 41 16 14 X 5% X
228 CSU Fullerton Big WestBig West 41 14 16 X 1% X
229 Miami OH MACMAC 41 15 14 X 6% X
230 North Dakota SummitSummit 41 18 13 X 16% X
231 Marist Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 40 16 11 X 12% X
232 Kent State MACMAC 40 14 17 X 6% X
233 Tennessee St. Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 40 17 14 X 9% X
234 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 40 16 15 X 2% X
235 Radford Big SouthBig South 40 15 16 X 4% X
236 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 40 11 18 X <1% X
237 Loyola Marymount West CoastWest Coast 40 12 18 X 1% X
238 Lamar SouthlandSouth-land 39 16 13 X 6% X
239 North Florida Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 39 16 15 X 9% X
240 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 39 14 16 X 1% X
241 UIC Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 38 11 20 X <1% X
242 Binghamton America EastAmerica East 38 14 14 X 3% X
243 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 38 9 21 X <1% X
244 Iona Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 38 14 15 X 7% X
245 Northern Arizona Big SkyBig Sky 38 14 17 X 4% X
246 Maine America EastAmerica East 38 14 16 X 3% X
247 UC Riverside Big WestBig West 38 13 17 X 2% X
248 N.C. Central MideasternMid-Eastern 37 16 11 X 20% X
249 PennsylvaniaPenn. Ivy LeagueIvy League 37 11 17 X X X
250 Columbia Ivy LeagueIvy League 37 13 13 X X X
251 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 37 9 19 X <1% X
252 North Dakota St. SummitSummit 37 15 16 X 11% X
253 North Alabama Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 37 14 16 X 4% X
254 Rider Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 37 14 16 X 7% X
255 SE Louisiana SouthlandSouth-land 36 14 15 X 3% X
256 Pepperdine West CoastWest Coast 36 11 19 X <1% X
257 UMKC SummitSummit 36 15 15 X 12% X
258 Queens U. Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 36 13 18 X 3% X
259 Kennesaw St. Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 36 15 15 X 3% X
260 NortheasternN. Eastern CoastalCoastal 36 12 19 X 1% X
261 Bethune-CookmanBethn-Ckmn SouthwesternSWAC 36 15 14 X 11% X
262 Jacksonville StateJacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 36 14 16 X 3% X
263 Portland West CoastWest Coast 36 11 19 X <1% X
264 Brown Ivy LeagueIvy League 35 11 17 X 2% X
265 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 35 12 19 X 1% X
266 Texas-San Antonio American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 11 19 X <1% X
267 Jackson St. SouthwesternSWAC 35 11 16 X 7% X
268 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 35 12 18 X 3% X
269 SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 35 16 15 X 4% X
270 Fla Gulf Coast Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 35 14 17 X 5% X
271 Niagara Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 35 14 14 X 7% X
272 Middle Tenn. Conference USAConf. USA 34 12 17 X 3% X
273 Alcorn St. SouthwesternSWAC 34 10 17 X 9% X
274 CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Big WestBig West 34 13 17 X 1% X
275 JacksonvilleJack.ville Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 34 14 16 - X -
276 Albany America EastAmerica East 33 13 17 X 1% X
277 Canisius Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 33 12 16 X 3% X
278 Ball State MACMAC 33 14 15 X 1% X
279 S. Carolina St. MideasternMid-Eastern 33 13 16 X 14% X
280 Alabama St. SouthwesternSWAC 32 12 16 X 4% X
281 Utah Tech WACWAC 32 10 19 X <1% X
282 Chicago State NCAA IndependentsInd. 32 12 18 - X -
283 Northern Illinois MACMAC 32 10 19 X X X
284 Denver SummitSummit 32 15 16 X 7% X
285 UL Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 31 11 18 X <1% X
286 Montana St. Big SkyBig Sky 31 13 17 X 3% X
287 Howard MideasternMid-Eastern 31 14 15 X 12% X
288 Eastern Illinois Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 30 14 17 - X -
289 PresbyterianPresbyter. Big SouthBig South 30 14 17 X 3% X
290 Elon CoastalCoastal 30 13 18 X <1% X
291 DePaul Big EastBig East 30 3 26 X <1% X
292 Campbell CoastalCoastal 30 14 17 X 1% X
293 Charleston Southern Big SouthBig South 29 10 19 X 2% X
294 Western Michigan MACMAC 29 11 18 X 2% X
295 FIU Conference USAConf. USA 29 10 19 X 1% X
296 Sacred Heart NortheastNorth East 29 16 15 X 10% X
297 AR Pine Bluff SouthwesternSWAC 29 13 16 X 4% X
298 Oral Roberts SummitSummit 28 11 17 X 5% X
299 Delaware St. MideasternMid-Eastern 28 13 15 X 9% X
300 Citadel SouthernSouthern 28 11 20 X <1% X
301 Nebraska Omaha SummitSummit 28 14 17 X 6% X
302 Valparaiso Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley 28 7 24 X <1% X
303 Idaho St. Big SkyBig Sky 27 12 18 X 1% X
304 Southern Utah WACWAC 27 9 20 X <1% X
305 Texas A&M-CommerceTX A&M-Comm SouthlandSouth-land 27 11 18 X 1% X
306 Mount St. Mary's Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 27 13 18 X 2% X
307 S. Carolina Upstate Big SouthBig South 27 10 19 X 1% X
308 American Patriot LeaguePatriot League 27 16 15 X 10% X
309 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 26 12 17 X X X
310 Boston U. Patriot LeaguePatriot League 26 15 16 X 11% X
311 Fair. Dickinson NortheastNorth East 26 15 16 X 6% X
312 Alabama A&M SouthwesternSWAC 25 9 19 X 4% X
313 Idaho Big SkyBig Sky 25 11 19 X 1% X
314 Bucknell Patriot LeaguePatriot League 25 13 18 X 6% X
315 Prairie View A&M SouthwesternSWAC 25 10 19 X X X
316 Le Moyne NortheastNorth East 24 14 16 X 6% X
317 UMBC America EastAmerica East 24 11 19 X 1% X
318 Wagner NortheastNorth East 23 13 15 X 4% X
319 South Dakota SummitSummit 22 12 19 X 2% X
320 Robert Morris HorizonHorizon 21 10 21 X <1% X
321 Lehigh Patriot LeaguePatriot League 21 12 17 X 5% X
322 Georgia Southern SunbeltSunbelt 21 8 23 X <1% X
323 Northwestern St.NWestrn St SouthlandSouth-land 19 9 20 X <1% X
324 Tennessee Tech Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 19 10 21 X 1% X
325 Bellarmine Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 19 8 23 - X -
326 Morgan St. MideasternMid-Eastern 19 9 19 X 4% X
327 Lafayette Patriot LeaguePatriot League 19 11 20 X 4% X
328 N. Carolina A&T CoastalCoastal 19 7 24 X <1% X
329 Sacramento St. Big SkyBig Sky 19 8 22 X <1% X
330 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 18 7 24 X <1% X
331 Florida A&M SouthwesternSWAC 18 6 21 X X X
332 UT-Rio Grande Valley WACWAC 18 6 23 X <1% X
333 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 18 8 21 X <1% X
334 NJIT America EastAmerica East 17 7 21 - X -
335 Dartmouth Ivy LeagueIvy League 17 5 21 X X X
336 Navy Patriot LeaguePatriot League 16 12 17 X 2% X
337 William & Mary CoastalCoastal 16 9 22 X <1% X
338 Central Arkansas Atlantic SunAtlantic Sun 16 9 23 X <1% X
339 New Orleans SouthlandSouth-land 16 9 20 X <1% X
340 Pacific West CoastWest Coast 16 6 25 X <1% X
341 Southern Indiana Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 14 8 23 X <1% X
342 SE Missouri St. Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 14 9 22 X <1% X
343 Manhattan Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 13 6 21 X <1% X
344 Lindenwood Ohio ValleyOhio Valley 13 9 22 - X -
345 Houston Christian SouthlandSouth-land 12 6 21 X <1% X
346 MD Eastern Shore MideasternMid-Eastern 12 8 18 X 2% X
347 Incarnate Word SouthlandSouth-land 12 8 21 X <1% X
348 Hampton CoastalCoastal 11 7 23 X <1% X
349 Buffalo MACMAC 9 4 25 X X X
350 Long Island U. NortheastNorth East 9 7 21 X 1% X
351 Army Patriot LeaguePatriot League 9 10 21 X 1% X
352 Holy Cross Patriot LeaguePatriot League 7 9 22 X <1% X
353 Cal Poly Big WestBig West 7 4 26 X X X
354 VMI SouthernSouthern 7 4 27 X <1% X
355 St. Francis (PA) NortheastNorth East 6 8 21 X 1% X
356 IUPUI HorizonHorizon 6 6 25 X <1% X
357 Siena Metro AtlanticMetro Atlantic 6 4 25 X <1% X
358 Miss. Valley St. SouthwesternSWAC 3 1 28 X X X
359 Loyola-MD Patriot LeaguePatriot League 3 7 24 X <1% X
360 Detroit HorizonHorizon 1 1 30 X <1% X
361 Stonehill NortheastNorth East 0 4 27 - X -
362 Coppin St. MideasternMid-Eastern -2 2 24 X <1% X
363 Hartford NCAA IndependentsInd. -24 7 18 - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will receive a tournament invitation - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot