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Thu Mar 12 4:00 am

NCAA Basketball - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the college basketball tournament? The NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your college team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Basketball
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Final Four Elite Eight Sweet Sixteen Round 2 Round 1
Team W L
Kansas 28 3 15% 25% 35% 52% 72% 95% 100%
Dayton 29 2 9% 16% 27% 44% 66% 94% 100%
Baylor 26 4 7% 14% 24% 41% 63% 94% 100%
Gonzaga 31 2 6% 11% 20% 36% 59% 90% 100%
Florida St. 26 5 6% 11% 20% 36% 59% 90% 100%
Villanova 24 7 5% 10% 19% 35% 58% 89% 100%
San Diego St. 30 2 4% 8% 16% 31% 53% 84% 100%
Duke 25 6 4% 8% 15% 30% 53% 83% 100%
Auburn 25 6 4% 7% 14% 27% 50% 80% 100%
Oregon 24 7 3% 7% 13% 26% 48% 79% 100%
Creighton 24 7 3% 6% 13% 25% 47% 79% 100%
Maryland 24 7 3% 6% 12% 23% 46% 78% 100%
Louisville 24 7 3% 6% 11% 23% 45% 76% 100%
Kentucky 25 6 3% 5% 11% 22% 45% 75% 100%
Seton Hall 21 9 2% 4% 9% 18% 40% 71% 100%
Virginia 23 7 2% 4% 9% 18% 39% 70% 100%
West Virginia 21 10 2% 3% 7% 15% 35% 66% 100%
Butler 22 9 1% 3% 7% 15% 34% 65% 100%
Michigan St. 22 9 1% 3% 7% 14% 34% 65% 100%
St. Mary's 25 8 1% 3% 6% 14% 29% 59% 100%
Houston 23 8 1% 2% 6% 13% 28% 58% 100%
BYU 24 8 1% 2% 5% 12% 26% 56% 100%
Wichita St. 23 8 1% 2% 5% 11% 23% 55% >99%
Wisconsin 21 10 1% 2% 5% 11% 23% 55% 100%
USC 22 9 1% 2% 5% 11% 23% 54% >99%
Richmond 24 7 1% 2% 5% 11% 22% 54% 99%
Ohio St. 21 10 1% 2% 4% 10% 23% 54% >99%
LSU 21 10 1% 2% 4% 10% 21% 54% >99%
Arizona St. 20 11 1% 1% 4% 9% 19% 49% 97%
Arizona 21 11 1% 1% 4% 8% 19% 49% 98%
Colorado 21 11 1% 1% 4% 8% 18% 52% 100%
E. Tennessee St. 30 4 1% 1% 4% 8% 18% 50% 100%
Oklahoma 19 12 1% 1% 3% 8% 18% 50% >99%
Utah St. 26 8 <1% 1% 3% 7% 18% 44% 100%
Providence 19 12 <1% 1% 3% 7% 15% 40% 85%
Xavier 19 13 <1% 1% 2% 6% 13% 35% 76%
Saint Louis 23 8 <1% 1% 2% 6% 13% 33% 65%
Liberty 30 4 <1% 1% 2% 5% 15% 38% 100%
Iowa 20 11 <1% 1% 2% 5% 12% 31% 65%
Marquette 18 12 <1% 1% 2% 5% 11% 30% 64%
Florida 19 12 <1% 1% 2% 5% 11% 29% 60%
Rhode Island 21 9 <1% 1% 2% 5% 10% 24% 48%
Illinois 21 10 <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 28% 58%
Texas 19 12 <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 27% 56%
Penn State 21 10 <1% 1% 2% 4% 9% 26% 53%
Cincinnati 20 10 <1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 21% 42%
Vermont 26 7 <1% <1% 1% 4% 12% 30% 82%
Stephen F. Austin 28 3 <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 24% 58%
Hofstra 26 8 <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 31% 100%
Belmont 26 7 <1% <1% 1% 3% 11% 28% 100%
Bradley 23 11 <1% <1% 1% 3% 10% 26% 100%
North Dakota St. 25 8 <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 23% 100%
Michigan 19 12 <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 20% 44%
Akron 24 7 <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 16% 35%
New Mexico St. 25 6 <1% <1% 1% 2% 8% 21% 59%
Yale 23 7 <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 15% 38%
Rutgers 20 11 <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 13% 29%
Northern Kentucky 23 9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6% 19% 100%
Winthrop 24 10 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 16% 100%
Harvard 21 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 12% 35%
Eastern Washington 23 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 30%
Boston U. 21 13 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 100%
UALR 21 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 9% 31%
Louisiana Tech 22 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 21%
Texas St. (SM) 21 11 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 7% 28%
North Texas 20 11 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 7% 22%
Western Kentucky 20 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 7% 20%
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 20 11 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 7% 14%
Siena 20 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 34%
UC Irvine 21 11 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 30%
Northern Colorado 22 9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 23%
Bowling Green 21 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 19%
Memphis 21 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 13%
Indiana 20 12 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 12%
UCLA 19 12 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 11%
N.C. State 20 12 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 10%
Tulsa 21 10 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10%
Arkansas 20 12 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 9%
Duquesne 21 9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 6%
Robert Morris 20 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 100%
UCSB 21 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 24%
South Alabama 20 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 21%
Georgia Southern 20 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 20%
Prairie View A&M 19 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 34%
St. Peter's 18 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 25%
PennsylvaniaPenn. 16 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 16%
Kent State 20 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 13%
ConnecticutConnect. 19 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
Rider 18 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 18%
Montana 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 17%
Nicholls St. 21 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 13%
Northern Illinois 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 9%
Oklahoma St. 18 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5%
Oregon St. 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5%
Texas Tech 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5%
Notre Dame 20 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
Southern Methodist 19 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
Syracuse 18 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3%
St. John's 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3%
Tennessee 17 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3%
N.C. Central 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 32%
Texas Southern 16 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 28%
Hawaii 17 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 16%
Abilene Christian 20 11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15%
Monmouth 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14%
N.C. A&T 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 31%
Southern 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 21%
Hartford 18 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 18%
Jackson St. 15 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 16%
Bethune-CookmanBethn-Ckmn 16 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 13%
Norfolk St. 16 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12%
CSU Northridge 15 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12%
UMKC 17 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11%
Princeton 14 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11%
Portland St. 18 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10%
FIU 19 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9%
Charlotte 16 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9%
UAB 19 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Ball State 17 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Marshall 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Ohio 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Southern Utah 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Montana St. 16 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7%
Toledo 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6%
California 14 18 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4%
South Carolina 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
UCF 16 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Washington St. 16 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt 19 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
VCU 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Alabama 16 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Clemson 16 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Davidson 16 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
DePaul 16 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Georgia 16 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Purdue 16 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Texas A&M 16 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Minnesota 15 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Morgan St. 15 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
Seattle 14 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
UT-Rio Grande Valley 14 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
UC Riverside 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7%
Sam Houston St. 18 13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6%
Sacramento St. 16 14 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6%
Quinnipiac 15 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6%
UC Davis 14 18 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
Grand Canyon 13 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. BF 12 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
Coppin St. 11 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
Florida Atlantic 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Lamar 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Niagara 12 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Utah Valley 12 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Long Beach St. 11 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Northwestern St.NWestrn St 15 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Miami OH 13 19 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
CSU Fullerton 11 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Temple 14 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
George Mason 17 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
La Salle 15 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Missouri 15 16 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
MassachusettsMass. 14 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
South Florida 14 17 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Idaho St. 8 22 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Colgate 25 9 X X X X X X X
Furman 25 7 X X X X X X X
Northern Iowa 25 6 X X X X X X X
Wright St. 25 7 X X X X X X X
Murray St. 23 9 X X X X X X X
N.C. Greensboro 23 9 X X X X X X X
Pacific 23 10 X X X X X X X
Delaware 22 11 X X X X X X X
San Francisco 22 12 X X X X X X X
South Dakota St. 22 10 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (PA) 22 10 X X X X X X X
Austin Peay 21 12 X X X X X X X
California Baptist 21 10 X X X X X X X
Loyola-ChicagoLoyl-Chcgo 21 11 X X X X X X X
North Florida 21 12 X X X X X X X
Radford 21 11 X X X X X X X
William & Mary 21 11 X X X X X X X
Boise St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Buffalo 20 12 X X X X X X X
ChattanoogaChattan. 20 13 X X X X X X X
Colorado St. 20 12 X X X X X X X
Drake 20 14 X X X X X X X
Merrimack 20 11 X X X X X X X
Sacred Heart 20 13 X X X X X X X
Santa Clara 20 13 X X X X X X X
South Dakota 20 12 X X X X X X X
Stanford 20 12 X X X X X X X
Stony Brook 20 13 X X X X X X X
Georgia St. 19 13 X X X X X X X
Lafayette 19 12 X X X X X X X
Nevada 19 12 X X X X X X X
New Mexico 19 14 X X X X X X X
Valparaiso 19 16 X X X X X X X
Western Carolina 19 12 X X X X X X X
Wofford 19 16 X X X X X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Ill. Chicago 18 17 X X X X X X X
Indiana St. 18 12 X X X X X X X
Tennessee St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Towson 18 13 X X X X X X X
Youngstown St. 18 15 X X X X X X X
Charleston 17 14 X X X X X X X
Eastern Illinois 17 15 X X X X X X X
Georgia Tech 17 14 X X X X X X X
Grambling 17 15 X X X X X X X
Green Bay 17 16 X X X X X X X
Mercer 17 15 X X X X X X X
NortheasternN. Eastern 17 16 X X X X X X X
Oral Roberts 17 14 X X X X X X X
UNLV 17 15 X X X X X X X
UTEP 17 15 X X X X X X X
American 16 14 X X X X X X X
Arkansas St. 16 16 X X X X X X X
Coastal Carolina 16 17 X X X X X X X
Eastern Kentucky 16 17 X X X X X X X
Eastern Michigan 16 16 X X X X X X X
Gardner-WebbGardnr-Wbb 16 16 X X X X X X X
Lipscomb 16 16 X X X X X X X
Missouri St. 16 17 X X X X X X X
Nebraska Omaha 16 16 X X X X X X X
Northern Arizona 16 14 X X X X X X X
Pepperdine 16 16 X X X X X X X
Pittsburgh 16 17 X X X X X X X
Southern Illinois 16 16 X X X X X X X
Stetson 16 17 X X X X X X X
TCU 16 16 X X X X X X X
UMBC 16 17 X X X X X X X
Utah 16 15 X X X X X X X
Virginia Tech 16 16 X X X X X X X
Alcorn St. 15 15 X X X X X X X
Army 15 15 X X X X X X X
Brown 15 12 X X X X X X X
Bryant 15 17 X X X X X X X
Campbell 15 16 X X X X X X X
Georgetown 15 17 X X X X X X X
Hampton 15 19 X X X X X X X
LIU 15 18 X X X X X X X
Loyola-MD 15 17 X X X X X X X
McNeese St. 15 17 X X X X X X X
Miami 15 16 X X X X X X X
N.C. Asheville 15 16 X X X X X X X
New Hampshire 15 15 X X X X X X X
North Dakota 15 18 X X X X X X X
Ole Miss 15 17 X X X X X X X
Rice 15 17 X X X X X X X
Washington 15 17 X X X X X X X
Albany 14 18 X X X X X X X
Bucknell 14 20 X X X X X X X
Central Michigan 14 18 X X X X X X X
Charleston Southern 14 18 X X X X X X X
Drexel 14 19 X X X X X X X
IPFW 14 19 X X X X X X X
JacksonvilleJack.ville 14 18 X X X X X X X
LA Lafayette 14 19 X X X X X X X
Longwood 14 18 X X X X X X X
Navy 14 16 X X X X X X X
North Carolina 14 19 X X X X X X X
Oakland 14 19 X X X X X X X
Texas A&M C.C. 14 18 X X X X X X X
Texas Arlington 14 18 X X X X X X X
Boston College 13 19 X X X X X X X
Jacksonville St.Jack.ville St. 13 19 X X X X X X X
Manhattan 13 18 X X X X X X X
Morehead St. 13 19 X X X X X X X
North Alabama 13 17 X X X X X X X
Old Dominion 13 19 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina Upstate 13 20 X X X X X X X
St. Francis (NY) 13 18 X X X X X X X
Texas-San Antonio 13 19 X X X X X X X
UMass-LowellUMA-Lowell 13 19 X X X X X X X
Wake Forest 13 18 X X X X X X X
Western Michigan 13 19 X X X X X X X
Air Force 12 20 X X X X X X X
Canisius 12 20 X X X X X X X
Dartmouth 12 17 X X X X X X X
Elon 12 21 X X X X X X X
Fairfield 12 20 X X X X X X X
Florida A&M 12 15 X X X X X X X
Geo. Washington 12 20 X X X X X X X
Iona 12 17 X X X X X X X
Iowa St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Tulane 12 18 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Weber St. 12 20 X X X X X X X
Wis. Milwaukee 12 19 X X X X X X X
Cleveland St. 11 21 X X X X X X X
E. Carolina 11 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fair. Dickinson 11 19 X X X X X X X
Fresno St. 11 19 X X X X X X X
Kansas St. 11 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lehigh 11 21 X X X X X X X
Loyola Marymount 11 21 X X X X X X X
Mount St. Mary's 11 21 X X X X X X X
S. Carolina St. 11 18 X X X X X X X
Vanderbilt 11 21 X X X X X X X
Binghamton 10 19 X X X X X X X
Central Arkansas 10 21 X X X X X X X
Fla Gulf Coast 10 22 X X X X X X X
Illinois St. 10 21 X X X X X X X
N.C. Wilmington 10 22 X X X X X X X
PresbyterianPresbyter. 10 22 X X X X X X X
Samford 10 23 X X X X X X X
Evansville 9 23 X X X X X X X
Fordham 9 22 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
High Point 9 23 X X X X X X X
Incarnate Word 9 22 X X X X X X X
James Madison 9 21 X X X X X X X
LA Monroe 9 20 X X X X X X X
Maine 9 22 X X X X X X X
New Jersey Tech 9 21 X X X X X X X
New Orleans 9 21 X X X X X X X
Portland 9 22 X X X X X X X
San Diego 9 23 X X X X X X X
Southern Miss 9 22 X X X X X X X
Tenn-MartinTN-Martin 9 20 X X X X X X X
Tennessee Tech 9 22 X X X X X X X
Troy 9 22 X X X X X X X
VMI 9 24 X X X X X X X
Wyoming 9 24 X X X X X X X
Alabama A&M 8 22 X X X X X X X
Alabama St. 8 24 X X X X X X X
Detroit 8 23 X X X X X X X
Idaho 8 24 X X X X X X X
Middle Tenn. 8 23 X X X X X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 8 23 X X X X X X X
SE Louisiana 8 23 X X X X X X X
SIU EdwardsvilleSIU Ed.ville 8 23 X X X X X X X
Wagner 8 21 X X X X X X X
Cal Poly 7 23 X X X X X X X
Cornell 7 20 X X X X X X X
Denver 7 24 X X X X X X X
IUPUI 7 25 X X X X X X X
Marist 7 23 X X X X X X X
Nebraska 7 25 X X X X X X X
SE Missouri St. 7 24 X X X X X X X
San Jose St. 7 24 X X X X X X X
Citadel 6 24 X X X X X X X
Columbia 6 24 X X X X X X X
Delaware St. 6 26 X X X X X X X
St. Joseph's 6 26 X X X X X X X
Chicago St. 5 26 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
MD Eastern Shore 5 27 X X X X X X X
Western Illinois 5 21 X X X X X X X
AR Pine Bluff 4 26 X X X X X X X
Central Conn. St. 4 27 X X X X X X X
Houston Baptist 4 25 X X X X X X X
Howard 4 29 X X X X X X X
Miss. Valley St. 4 27 X X X X X X X
Holy Cross 3 29 X X X X X X X
Kennesaw St. 1 28 X X X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot