PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Oct 13 12:45 am

NCHC Hockey - Week 3 of 23

North Dakota What If?

The North Dakota Fighting Sioux What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how North Dakota plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

North Dakota What If?

Next Game - Minnesota-Duluth (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
LRi
Losses in Regulation
Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
1*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
2*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
3*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
4*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8 9
Win Next Game 1 0 0 0 3 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 11% 6%
Current Standings 0 0 0 0 0 9% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 9%
Lose Next Game 0 0 0 1 0 7% 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 10%


Current Series - Minnesota-Duluth (1‑2) - 2 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
LRi
Losses in Regulation
Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
1*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
2*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
3*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
4*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8 9
North Dakota Sweeps 2 0 0 0 6 10% 12% 13% 12% 12% 14% 12% 10% 4%
Current Standings 0 0 0 0 0 9% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 9%
Minnesota-Duluth Sweeps 0 0 0 2 0 5% 9% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 13%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
2*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
3*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
4*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8 9
Best Case Scenario 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 11% 6%
Current Standings 9% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 9%
Worst Case Scenario 7% 10% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 10%
Best Case Scenario
   North Dakota beats Minnesota-Duluth
Worst Case Scenario
   Minnesota-Duluth beats North Dakota
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
WRi
Wins in Regulation
WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
LRi
Losses in Regulation
Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
1*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
2*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
3*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
4*
First Round Bye and 2nd Round
Home Ice Advantange
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8 9
24 of 24 100% 24 0 0 0 72 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 24 83% 20 0 0 4 60 85% 15% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 24 79% 19 0 0 5 57 62% 36% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 24 75% 18 0 0 6 54 34% 55% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 24 71% 17 0 0 7 51 13% 54% 30% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 24 67% 16 0 0 8 48 3% 33% 51% 12% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
15 of 24 63% 15 0 0 9 45 <1% 13% 49% 33% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 24 58% 14 0 0 10 42 <1% 3% 30% 50% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 24 54% 13 0 0 11 39 <1% <1% 11% 46% 37% 6% <1% <1% ^
12 of 24 50% 12 0 0 12 36 X <1% 2% 25% 50% 21% 2% <1% ^
11 of 24 46% 11 0 0 13 33 X <1% <1% 8% 42% 41% 9% <1% <1%
10 of 24 42% 10 0 0 14 30 X X <1% 1% 20% 51% 26% 3% <1%
9 of 24 38% 9 0 0 15 27 X X X <1% 5% 38% 46% 11% <1%
8 of 24 33% 8 0 0 16 24 X X X <1% 1% 16% 51% 29% 2%
7 of 24 29% 7 0 0 17 21 X X X X <1% 4% 36% 50% 10%
6 of 24 25% 6 0 0 18 18 X X X X <1% <1% 16% 57% 27%
5 of 24 21% 5 0 0 19 15 X X X X X <1% 4% 43% 52%
4 of 24 17% 4 0 0 20 12 X X X X X <1% <1% 23% 76%
3 of 24 13% 3 0 0 21 9 X X X X X X <1% 9% 91%
0 of 24 0% 0 0 0 24 0 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye and second round home ice advantage in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round home ice advantage in the post season conference tournament