The Fresno State Bulldogs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Fresno State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 2 | 1% | 14% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 18% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 2 | 1% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 24% | 23% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 3 | X | <1% | 5% | 15% | 24% | 29% | 26% | 1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 1% | 14% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 21% | 18% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 1% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 24% | 23% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | X | <1% | 5% | 15% | 24% | 29% | 26% | 1% |
|
Best Case Scenario Fresno State beats Oregon St. |
Worst Case Scenario Oregon St. beats Fresno State |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 6% | 67% | 24% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 | 3 | <1% | 6% | 25% | 49% | 19% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 3 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 8% | 31% | 46% | 15% | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 5 | X | X | X | X | 2% | 31% | 66% | 1% |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 94% | 6% |