The Texas Longhorns What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Texas plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 1 | 9% | 15% | 22% | 39% | 7% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4 | 1 | 4% | 7% | 10% | 20% | 22% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 12% | 32% | 29% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 9% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4% | 7% | 10% | 20% | 22% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | 2% | 6% | 7% | 22% | 28% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Mississippi St. beats Georgia Missouri beats Texas A&M LSU beats Alabama |
Worst Case Scenario Georgia beats Mississippi St. Texas A&M beats Missouri Alabama beats LSU |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ||
| 3 of 3 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 28% | 41% | 25% | 6% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 3 | 67% | 6 | 2 | <1% | 4% | 21% | 50% | 22% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 | 3 | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 29% | 43% | 21% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 3 | 0% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 29% | 38% | 21% | 5% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |