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Sun Sep 14 5:00 pm

Serie A - Week 5 of 40

Bologna What If?

The Bologna What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bologna What If?

Next Game - Genoa (0‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 2 2 0 6 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13%
Current Standings 1 2 0 3 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 17%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 3 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 22%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13%
Current Standings 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 17%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 22%
Best Case Scenario
   Bologna beats Genoa
 Worst Case Scenario
   Genoa beats Bologna
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35 of 35 100% 36 2 0 108 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 35 86% 31 7 0 93 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 35 71% 26 12 0 78 99% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 35 66% 24 14 0 72 88% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 35 63% 23 15 0 69 70% 26% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 35 60% 22 16 0 66 40% 42% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 of 35 57% 21 17 0 63 11% 32% 35% 17% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
19 of 35 54% 20 18 0 60 1% 7% 20% 31% 26% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 35 51% 19 19 0 57 <1% <1% 1% 6% 17% 28% 27% 15% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 35 49% 18 20 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 20% 28% 24% 12% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 35 46% 17 21 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 9% 21% 29% 23% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 35 43% 16 22 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 12% 24% 29% 21% 8% 2%
14 of 35 40% 15 23 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 22% 32% 34%
13 of 35 37% 14 24 0 42 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 83%
10 of 35 29% 11 27 0 33 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 35 14% 6 32 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 35 0% 1 37 0 3 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round