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Mon Sep 15 7:30 pm

Serie A - Week 5 of 40

Genoa What If?

The Genoa What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Genoa What If?

Next Game - Bologna (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 1 1 2 5 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 15%
Current Standings 0 1 2 2 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 22%
Lose Next Game 0 2 2 2 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 26%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 15%
Current Standings 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 22%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 26%
Best Case Scenario
   Genoa beats Bologna
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bologna beats Genoa
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35 of 35 100% 35 1 2 107 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 35 86% 30 6 2 92 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 35 71% 25 11 2 77 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 35 69% 24 12 2 74 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 35 66% 23 13 2 71 84% 15% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 35 63% 22 14 2 68 63% 32% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 35 60% 21 15 2 65 30% 43% 21% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 of 35 57% 20 16 2 62 6% 25% 35% 24% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
19 of 35 54% 19 17 2 59 <1% 3% 12% 26% 30% 20% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 35 51% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 20% 28% 24% 13% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 35 49% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 22% 28% 22% 10% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 35 46% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 11% 22% 29% 22% 10% 3% <1% <1%
15 of 35 43% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 14% 27% 29% 17% 7%
14 of 35 40% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 29% 52%
13 of 35 37% 13 23 2 41 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
10 of 35 29% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 35 14% 5 31 2 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 35 0% 0 36 2 2 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round