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Mon Sep 15 7:30 pm

Serie A - Week 5 of 40

Lecce What If?

The Lecce What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lecce What If?

Next Game - Cagliari (1‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 1 2 1 4 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 19%
Current Standings 0 2 1 1 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 24%
Lose Next Game 0 3 1 1 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 31%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 19%
Current Standings 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 24%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 31%
Best Case Scenario
   Lecce beats Cagliari
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cagliari beats Lecce
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
35 of 35 100% 35 2 1 106 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 35 86% 30 7 1 91 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 35 71% 25 12 1 76 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 35 69% 24 13 1 73 92% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 35 66% 23 14 1 70 79% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 35 63% 22 15 1 67 53% 37% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 35 60% 21 16 1 64 20% 40% 28% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 of 35 57% 20 17 1 61 3% 14% 31% 31% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
19 of 35 54% 19 18 1 58 <1% 1% 5% 15% 28% 28% 17% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 35 51% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 21% 28% 23% 11% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 35 49% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 21% 29% 23% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 35 46% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 11% 22% 29% 21% 9% 2% <1%
15 of 35 43% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 18% 29% 28% 18%
14 of 35 40% 14 23 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 70%
10 of 35 29% 10 27 1 31 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 35 14% 5 32 1 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 35 0% 0 37 1 1 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round