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Mon Oct 3 5:00 pm

Serie A - Week 9 of 43

Napoli What If?

The Napoli What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Napoli What If?

Next Game - Cremonese (0‑5‑3)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
6#
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 7 0 2 23 42% 22% 14% 9% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 6 0 2 20 41% 22% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 6 1 2 20 33% 23% 16% 10% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
6#
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 44% 22% 13% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 41% 22% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 33% 22% 16% 11% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Juventus beats AC Milan
   Napoli beats Cremonese
Worst Case Scenario
   AC Milan beats Juventus
   Cremonese beats Napoli
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Serie A Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
6#
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
30 of 30 100% 36 0 2 110 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 31 5 2 95 89% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 30 80% 30 6 2 92 76% 22% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 30 77% 29 7 2 89 59% 36% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 30 73% 28 8 2 86 38% 46% 15% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 30 70% 27 9 2 83 20% 45% 29% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 26 10 2 80 8% 33% 40% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 30 63% 25 11 2 77 3% 18% 37% 31% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 30 60% 24 12 2 74 1% 7% 25% 38% 23% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 30 57% 23 13 2 71 <1% 2% 11% 30% 35% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 30 53% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 3% 15% 33% 32% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
15 of 30 50% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 34% 29% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
14 of 30 47% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 35% 26% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
13 of 30 43% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 30 40% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 35% 23% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 30 37% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 34% 23% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 30 33% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 25% 35% 22% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 30 30% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 34% 22% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 30 27% 14 22 2 44 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1% <1% <1%
7 of 30 23% 13 23 2 41 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 34% 24% 9% 2% <1%
6 of 30 20% 12 24 2 38 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1%
5 of 30 17% 11 25 2 35 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 35% 27% 10%
4 of 30 13% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 22% 38% 34%
3 of 30 10% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 26% 67%
2 of 30 7% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
0 of 30 0% 6 30 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Serie A Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League Qualifiers