PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 3 4:00 am

Southwestern Basketball - Week 4 of 18

Alabama St. What If?

The Alabama St. Hornets What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Alabama St. plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Alabama St. What If?

Next Game - AR Pine Bluff (4‑5)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 1 0 24% 18% 13% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5% 8%
Current Standings 0 0 21% 17% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 12%
Lose Next Game 0 1 15% 16% 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 13%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 23% 18% 13% 10% 8% 8% 6% 5% 8%
Current Standings 21% 17% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 12%
Worst Case Scenario 16% 16% 13% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 14%
Best Case Scenario
   Alabama St. beats Miss. Valley St.
Worst Case Scenario
   Miss. Valley St. beats Alabama St.
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 90% 10% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 71% 28% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 42% 48% 9% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 16% 49% 30% 5% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 25% 43% 24% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 5% 25% 41% 24% 5% <1% <1% ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 4% 21% 40% 26% 7% 1% <1%
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% 2% 16% 37% 33% 11% 1%
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X <1% 1% 12% 33% 36% 18%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X <1% 1% 8% 29% 63%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X <1% <1% 5% 94%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament