The Most Important Games for the South Alabama Jaguars are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Jaguars final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. South Alabama Jaguars fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
South Alabama Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| South Alabama (11‑13) vs Troy (14‑11) |
32 | South Alabama Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Arkansas St. (10‑15) vs Texas State (11‑14) |
5 | Arkansas St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Texas State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 8% | <1% | ||
| Marshall (19‑6) vs Coastal Carolina (10‑14) |
5 | Marshall Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 7% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 9% | <1% | ||
| James Madison (17‑8) vs Georgia Southern (12‑13) |
3 | James Madison Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 7% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 7% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (11‑14) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (13‑12) |
1 | UL Monroe Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 7% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (14‑10) vs Georgia St. (10‑14) |
1 | Old Dominion Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 5% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 10% | 1% | ||
| Southern Miss (21‑4) vs LA Lafayette (20‑4) |
0 | Southern Miss Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 7% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 7% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 7% | <1% | ||