The Marshall Thundering Herd What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Marshall plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winner | No Playoffs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 1 | 23% | 31% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 4% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 1 | 12% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 3% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 2 | 2% | 12% | 23% | 26% | 21% | 13% | 4% |
| Divisional Winner | No Playoffs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 13% | 20% | 20% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 12% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 3% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 12% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Old Dominion beats Appalachian St. |
Worst Case Scenario Appalachian St. beats Old Dominion |
||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winner | No Playoffs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 | 2 | 40% | 55% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 5 | 3 | 2% | 39% | 45% | 14% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 | 4 | <1% | 2% | 24% | 48% | 24% | 2% | <1% |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 5 | X | X | 1% | 13% | 50% | 35% | 2% |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | 4% | 61% | 35% |