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Wed Feb 21 5:00 pm

UEFA Champions League - Regular Season Complete

UCL Knockout Round Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the knockout round? The UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different knockout rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team page.

UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities
Record UCL Winner Finals Semi Finals Quarter Finals Round of 16
Team Group Grp W L T Pts
Manchester City GG 6 0 0 18 32% 50% 72% >99% 100%
Bayern Munich AA 5 0 1 16 14% 25% 42% 67% 100%
Real Madrid CC 6 0 0 18 11% 23% 46% 84% 100%
Dortmund FF 3 1 2 11 9% 19% 38% 70% 100%
Barcelona HH 4 2 0 12 9% 18% 36% 66% 100%
Paris SG FF 2 2 2 8 7% 16% 39% 87% 100%
Arsenal BB 4 1 1 13 5% 11% 23% 46% 100%
Inter Milan DD 3 0 3 12 3% 8% 23% 60% 100%
Napoli CC 3 2 1 10 3% 7% 16% 34% 100%
FC Porto HH 4 2 0 12 2% 7% 21% 54% 100%
Atletico Madrid EE 4 0 2 14 2% 6% 16% 40% 100%
PSV Eindhoven BB 2 1 3 9 1% 3% 11% 30% 100%
RB Leipzig GG 4 2 0 12 1% 3% 7% 16% 100%
Lazio EE 3 2 1 10 <1% 2% 8% 33% 100%
Real Sociedad DD 3 0 3 12 <1% 1% 4% 13% 100%
FC Copenhagen AA 2 2 2 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 100%
Shakhtar HH 3 3 0 9 X X X X X
AC Milan FF 2 2 2 8 X X X X X
Lens BB 2 2 2 8 X X X X X
Rotterdam EE 2 4 0 6 X X X X X
GalatasarayGalatasary AA 1 3 2 5 X X X X X
Newcastle FF 1 3 2 5 X X X X X
Benfica DD 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
Braga CC 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
Celtic EE 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
FC Salzburg DD 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
Manchester United AA 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
Young Boys GG 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
Antwerp HH 1 5 0 3 X X X X X
FC Union Berlin CC 0 4 2 2 X X X X X
Sevilla FC BB 0 4 2 2 X X X X X
RS Belgrade GG 0 5 1 1 X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next knockout round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this knockout round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot