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Fri Nov 11 7:45 am

UEFA Champions League - Regular Season Complete

UCL Knockout Round Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the knockout round? The UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different knockout rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team page.

UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Probabilities
Record UCL Winner Finals Semi Finals Quarter Finals Round of 16
Team Group Grp W L T Pts
Manchester City Group GG 4 0 2 14 26% 43% 62% 82% 100%
Bayern Munich Group CC 6 0 0 18 23% 35% 46% 59% 100%
Paris SG Group HH 4 0 2 14 12% 21% 30% 41% 100%
Liverpool Group AA 5 1 0 15 10% 20% 35% 56% 100%
Real Madrid Group FF 4 1 1 13 6% 13% 26% 44% 100%
Tottenham Group DD 3 1 2 11 4% 11% 27% 58% 100%
Chelsea Group EE 4 1 1 13 4% 11% 27% 57% 100%
Inter Milan Group CC 3 2 1 10 4% 10% 26% 56% 100%
Napoli Group AA 5 1 0 15 2% 8% 26% 71% 100%
Benfica Group HH 4 0 2 14 2% 6% 22% 68% 100%
FC Porto Group BB 4 2 0 12 2% 6% 18% 44% 100%
Dortmund Group GG 2 1 3 9 2% 6% 18% 43% 100%
AC Milan Group EE 3 2 1 10 2% 6% 17% 42% 100%
RB Leipzig Group FF 4 2 0 12 1% 3% 8% 18% 100%
Club Brugge Group BB 3 1 2 11 <1% 1% 7% 32% 100%
Frankfurt Group DD 3 2 1 10 <1% 1% 6% 29% 100%
Barcelona Group CC 2 3 1 7 X X X X X
Sporting CP Group DD 2 3 1 7 X X X X X
Ajax Group AA 2 4 0 6 X X X X X
FC Salzburg Group EE 1 2 3 6 X X X X X
Marseille Group DD 2 4 0 6 X X X X X
Shakhtar Donetsk Group FF 1 2 3 6 X X X X X
Atletico Madrid Group BB 1 3 2 5 X X X X X
Leverkusen Group BB 1 3 2 5 X X X X X
Sevilla FC Group GG 1 3 2 5 X X X X X
Dinamo Group EE 1 4 1 4 X X X X X
FC Copenhagen Group GG 0 3 3 3 X X X X X
Juventus Group HH 1 5 0 3 X X X X X
Maccabi Haifa Group HH 1 5 0 3 X X X X X
Celtic Group FF 0 4 2 2 X X X X X
Rangers Group AA 0 6 0 0 X X X X X
Viktoria Plzen Group CC 0 6 0 0 X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next knockout round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this knockout round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this knockout round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot