PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Jan 28 11:15 pm

West Coast Basketball - Week 12 of 17

San Diego What If?

The San Diego Toreros What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how San Diego plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

San Diego What If?

Next Game - San Francisco (13‑8)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
3**
First and Second
Round Byes
4**
First and Second
Round Byes
5***
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10
Win Next Game 4 5 <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 13% 21% 25% 29% <1%
Current Standings 3 5 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 14% 23% 46% 2%
Lose Next Game 3 6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 22% 58% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
3**
First and Second
Round Byes
4**
First and Second
Round Byes
5***
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 4% 7% 13% 20% 25% 28% 1%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 14% 23% 46% 2%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 4% 10% 23% 60% 2%
Best Case Scenario
   St. Mary's beats BYU
   San Diego beats San Francisco
   Pepperdine beats Loyola Marymount
Worst Case Scenario
   BYU beats St. Mary's
   San Francisco beats San Diego
   Loyola Marymount beats Pepperdine
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
3**
First and Second
Round Byes
4**
First and Second
Round Byes
5***
First Round Bye
6***
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10
8 of 8 100% 11 5 2% 41% 56% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 8 88% 10 6 <1% 5% 62% 30% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 8 75% 9 7 <1% <1% 19% 52% 25% 4% <1% ^ ^ ^
5 of 8 63% 8 8 X <1% 1% 17% 42% 32% 8% <1% <1% ^
4 of 8 50% 7 9 X X <1% <1% 8% 32% 42% 16% 1% <1%
3 of 8 38% 6 10 X X X X <1% 3% 24% 49% 24% <1%
2 of 8 25% 5 11 X X X X X <1% 2% 26% 72% 1%
1 of 8 13% 4 12 X X X X X X <1% 3% 93% 5%
0 of 8 0% 3 13 X X X X X X X X 86% 14%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first, second, and third round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • *** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament