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Sat May 16 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 2 of 21

Sun What If?

The Sun What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sun play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sun What If?

Next Game - Fire (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 1 4 <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 68%
Current Standings 0 4 <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 6% 7% 69%
Lose Next Game 0 5 <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 71%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 68%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 6% 7% 69%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Sun beats Fire
 Worst Case Scenario
   Fire beats Sun
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
40 of 40 100% 40 4 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
38 of 40 95% 38 6 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
37 of 40 93% 37 7 83% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
36 of 40 90% 36 8 69% 29% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
35 of 40 88% 35 9 52% 41% 7% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
34 of 40 85% 34 10 33% 48% 18% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
33 of 40 83% 33 11 18% 44% 30% 7% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
32 of 40 80% 32 12 8% 33% 41% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
31 of 40 78% 31 13 3% 19% 41% 30% 7% 1% <1% <1% ^
30 of 40 75% 30 14 1% 9% 30% 38% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1%
29 of 40 73% 29 15 <1% 3% 18% 38% 31% 9% 1% <1% <1%
28 of 40 70% 28 16 <1% 1% 8% 27% 39% 21% 4% <1% <1%
27 of 40 68% 27 17 <1% <1% 2% 16% 36% 33% 11% 1% <1%
26 of 40 65% 26 18 <1% <1% 1% 7% 25% 39% 23% 5% <1%
25 of 40 63% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 35% 34% 13% 2%
24 of 40 60% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 25% 38% 24% 6%
23 of 40 58% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 35% 34% 15%
22 of 40 55% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 25% 38% 31%
21 of 40 53% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 34% 50%
20 of 40 50% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 24% 70%
19 of 40 48% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 85%
18 of 40 45% 18 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 5% 95%
15 of 40 38% 15 29 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 40 25% 10 34 X X X X X X X X 100%
5 of 40 13% 5 39 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 40 0% 0 44 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs