The Navy Midshipmen What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Navy plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 1 | 20% | 21% | 23% | 29% | 7% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 5 | 1 | 11% | 13% | 16% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 2 | <1% | 3% | 10% | 20% | 26% | 28% | 12% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 42% | 19% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 11% | 13% | 16% | 23% | 16% | 15% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 2% | 8% | 20% | 27% | 29% | 13% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Navy beats South Florida UAB beats North Texas Florida Atlantic beats Tulane |
Worst Case Scenario South Florida beats Navy North Texas beats UAB Tulane beats Florida Atlantic |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||
| 2 of 2 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 42% | 38% | 17% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 2 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 1% | 8% | 25% | 45% | 19% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 2 | 0% | 5 | 3 | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 25% | 50% | 22% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |