PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Jan 28 9:30 pm

Atlantic Sun Basketball - Week 13 of 16

North Alabama What If?

The North Alabama Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how North Alabama plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

North Alabama What If?

Next Game - Stetson (11‑10)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10 NT
Win Next Game 6 5 <1% 1% 8% 10% 12% 13% 14% 13% 13% 10% 5%
Current Standings 5 5 <1% 1% 4% 7% 9% 11% 13% 14% 15% 15% 10%
Lose Next Game 5 6 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 18% 19% 13%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10 NT
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 8% 12% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 5%
Current Standings <1% 1% 4% 7% 9% 11% 13% 14% 15% 15% 10%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 2% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 20% 14%
Best Case Scenario
   Central Arkansas beats Fla Gulf Coast
   North Alabama beats Stetson
   Kennesaw St. beats Bellarmine
Worst Case Scenario
   Fla Gulf Coast beats Central Arkansas
   Stetson beats North Alabama
   Bellarmine beats Kennesaw St.
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Home
Field Advantage
5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10 NT
8 of 8 100% 13 5 3% 41% 54% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 8 88% 12 6 <1% 11% 60% 25% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 8 75% 11 7 <1% 1% 20% 40% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
5 of 8 63% 10 8 <1% <1% 1% 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% <1% ^
4 of 8 50% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 3% 13% 30% 34% 17% 3% <1%
3 of 8 38% 8 10 X X X X <1% <1% 5% 21% 40% 30% 4%
2 of 8 25% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 15% 48% 36%
1 of 8 13% 6 12 X X X X X X X <1% 1% 20% 79%
0 of 8 0% 5 13 X X X X X X X X X 2% 98%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye and home court advantage in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round home court advantage in the post season conference tournament