North Alabama Lions What If?

	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
	W	L	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
Win Next Game	1	0	14%	14%	13%	12%	11%	10%	8%	7%	5%	3%	2%
Current Standings	0	0	13%	13%	13%	12%	11%	10%	9%	7%	6%	4%	3%
Lose Next Game	0	1	9%	11%	12%	12%	11%	10%	10%	8%	7%	5%	5%

	Regular Season Finish
	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
Best Case Scenario	14%	14%	13%	12%	11%	10%	8%	7%	5%	3%	2%
Current Standings	13%	13%	13%	12%	11%	10%	9%	7%	6%	4%	3%
Worst Case Scenario	9%	11%	12%	12%	11%	10%	10%	8%	7%	5%	5%
Best Case Scenario North Alabama beats Bellarmine						Worst Case Scenario Bellarmine beats North Alabama

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^** First Round Bye	7	8	9	10	NT
18 of 18	100%	18	0	100%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
17 of 18	94%	17	1	>99%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
16 of 18	89%	16	2	95%	5%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
15 of 18	83%	15	3	75%	24%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
14 of 18	78%	14	4	40%	48%	12%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^
13 of 18	72%	13	5	12%	42%	37%	9%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^
12 of 18	67%	12	6	2%	16%	41%	33%	8%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^
11 of 18	61%	11	7	<1%	2%	17%	40%	32%	9%	1%	<1%	^	^	^
10 of 18	56%	10	8	<1%	<1%	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%	<1%	^	^
9 of 18	50%	9	9	X	X	<1%	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%	<1%	^
8 of 18	44%	8	10	X	X	X	<1%	1%	11%	34%	38%	14%	2%	<1%
7 of 18	39%	7	11	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
6 of 18	33%	6	12	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	9%	32%	40%	18%
5 of 18	28%	5	13	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	9%	36%	54%
4 of 18	22%	4	14	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	13%	86%
3 of 18	17%	3	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	2%	98%
2 of 18	11%	2	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	>99%
1 of 18	6%	1	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%
0 of 18	0%	0	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	100%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes 1st round bye and 2nd home court advantage in the conference tournament
** denotes 1st round bye in the conference tournament

Atlantic Sun Basketball - Week 6 of 17