The North Alabama Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how North Alabama plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 5% |
| Current Standings | 5 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 13% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 5% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 14% |
|
Best Case Scenario Central Arkansas beats Fla Gulf Coast North Alabama beats Stetson Kennesaw St. beats Bellarmine |
Worst Case Scenario Fla Gulf Coast beats Central Arkansas Stetson beats North Alabama Bellarmine beats Kennesaw St. |
||||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Home Field Advantage |
6** First Round Home Field Advantage |
7** First Round Home Field Advantage |
8** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | NT | ||
| 8 of 8 | 100% | 13 | 5 | 3% | 41% | 54% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 8 | 88% | 12 | 6 | <1% | 11% | 60% | 25% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 8 | 75% | 11 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 20% | 40% | 29% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 8 | 63% | 10 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 28% | 35% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 4 of 8 | 50% | 9 | 9 | X | X | <1% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 30% | 34% | 17% | 3% | <1% |
| 3 of 8 | 38% | 8 | 10 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 21% | 40% | 30% | 4% |
| 2 of 8 | 25% | 7 | 11 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 15% | 48% | 36% |
| 1 of 8 | 13% | 6 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 20% | 79% |
| 0 of 8 | 0% | 5 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 2% | 98% |