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Wed Dec 11 12:45 am

Big West Basketball - Week 6 of 18

UCSB What If?

The UCSB Gauchos What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UCSB plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

UCSB What If?

Next Game - Hawai'i (5‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 1 2 3% 9% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 10% 12%
Current Standings 0 2 2% 8% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 16%
Lose Next Game 0 3 1% 6% 10% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 19%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 3% 9% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 10% 12%
Current Standings 2% 8% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 16%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 6% 10% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 19%
Best Case Scenario
   UCSB beats Hawai'i
 Worst Case Scenario
   Hawai'i beats UCSB
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3**
First Round Bye
 4**
First Round Bye
 5 6 7 8 NT
18 of 18 100% 18 2 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 3 90% 10% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 4 68% 31% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 5 39% 53% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 6 15% 56% 27% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 7 4% 36% 45% 14% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 8 <1% 13% 42% 36% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^
11 of 18 61% 11 9 <1% 2% 21% 44% 27% 5% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 18 56% 10 10 <1% <1% 4% 26% 43% 23% 4% <1% <1%
9 of 18 50% 9 11 X <1% <1% 6% 29% 41% 20% 3% <1%
8 of 18 44% 8 12 X X <1% <1% 7% 32% 41% 18% 3%
7 of 18 39% 7 13 X X X <1% <1% 9% 34% 40% 16%
6 of 18 33% 6 14 X X X X <1% 1% 11% 40% 48%
5 of 18 28% 5 15 X X X X X <1% 1% 17% 81%
4 of 18 22% 4 16 X X X X X X <1% 3% 97%
3 of 18 17% 3 17 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
2 of 18 11% 2 18 X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 18 6% 1 19 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 0 20 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament