The St. Thomas Tommies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how St. Thomas plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Home Field Advantange |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 21% | 30% | 29% | 2% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 35% | 3% |
| Lose Next Game | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 7% | 14% | 26% | 46% | 4% |
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Home Field Advantange |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| St. Thomas Sweeps | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | <1% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 23% | 32% | 23% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 35% | 3% |
| Ferris State Sweeps | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 22% | 58% | 5% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Home Field Advantange |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 20% | 26% | 32% | 4% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 35% | 3% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 36% | 2% |
|
Best Case Scenario Northern Michigan beats Bowling Green |
Worst Case Scenario Bowling Green beats Northern Michigan |
|||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Home Field Advantange |
2* First Round Home Field Advantange |
3* First Round Home Field Advantange |
4* First Round Home Field Advantange |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 14 of 14 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 45% | 52% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 14 | 93% | 15 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 15% | 61% | 23% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 14 | 86% | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 2% | 33% | 52% | 14% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 14 | 79% | 13 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 42 | <1% | 6% | 41% | 46% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 14 | 71% | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 39 | <1% | <1% | 11% | 50% | 36% | 3% | <1% | ^ |
| 9 of 14 | 64% | 11 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 36 | X | <1% | 1% | 21% | 56% | 21% | 1% | ^ |
| 8 of 14 | 57% | 10 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 33 | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 37% | 50% | 9% | <1% |
| 7 of 14 | 50% | 9 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 30 | X | X | <1% | <1% | 14% | 56% | 30% | <1% |
| 6 of 14 | 43% | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 27 | X | X | X | <1% | 3% | 40% | 57% | <1% |
| 5 of 14 | 36% | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 24 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 18% | 80% | 2% |
| 4 of 14 | 29% | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 21 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 89% | 7% |
| 3 of 14 | 21% | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 81% | 19% |
| 2 of 14 | 14% | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 62% | 38% |
| 1 of 14 | 7% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 36% | 64% |
| 0 of 14 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 11% | 89% |