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Mon Dec 9 11:45 am

ECAC Hockey - Week 11 of 22

Colgate What If?

The Colgate Raiders What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Colgate plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Colgate What If?

Next Game - Quinnipiac (8‑6‑1)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Win Next Game 5 2 1 1 20 17% 17% 16% 14% 12% 9% 7% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 2 1 1 17 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Lose Next Game 4 2 1 2 17 7% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1% <1%


Current Series - Quinnipiac (8‑6‑1) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Colgate Sweeps 5 2 1 1 20 17% 17% 16% 14% 12% 9% 7% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 2 1 1 17 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Quinnipiac Sweeps 4 2 1 2 17 7% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Best Case Scenario 12% 14% 14% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 4% 3% 1% <1%
Current Standings 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 4% 2% 1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Harvard beats Quinnipiac
 Worst Case Scenario
   Quinnipiac beats Harvard
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
14 of 14 100% 18 2 1 1 59 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 17 2 1 2 56 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 16 2 1 3 53 89% 11% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 15 2 1 4 50 66% 31% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 14 71% 14 2 1 5 47 34% 49% 16% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 14 64% 13 2 1 6 44 9% 40% 40% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 14 57% 12 2 1 7 41 1% 13% 39% 37% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 14 50% 11 2 1 8 38 <1% 1% 12% 38% 36% 11% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
6 of 14 43% 10 2 1 9 35 <1% <1% 1% 10% 34% 39% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^
5 of 14 36% 9 2 1 10 32 X <1% <1% <1% 7% 28% 41% 20% 3% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 14 29% 8 2 1 11 29 X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 24% 42% 24% 5% <1% <1%
3 of 14 21% 7 2 1 12 26 X X X X <1% <1% 3% 20% 41% 29% 6% <1%
2 of 14 14% 6 2 1 13 23 X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 20% 43% 30% 5%
1 of 14 7% 5 2 1 14 20 X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 22% 50% 26%
0 of 14 0% 4 2 1 15 17 X X X X X X X X <1% 3% 33% 63%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament