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Fri Dec 13 10:45 pm

ECAC Hockey - Week 11 of 22

Union What If?

The Union Dutchmen What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Union plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Union What If?

Next Game - Brown (3‑4‑2)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Win Next Game 4 0 0 3 12 3% 6% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 11% 9% 4% 1%
Current Standings 3 0 0 3 9 2% 5% 7% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 6% 2%
Lose Next Game 3 0 0 4 9 1% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 13% 8% 3%


Current Series - Brown (3‑4‑2) - 1 Remaining Game

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Union Sweeps 4 0 0 3 12 3% 6% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 11% 9% 4% 1%
Current Standings 3 0 0 3 9 2% 5% 7% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 6% 2%
Brown Sweeps 3 0 0 4 9 1% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 13% 8% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
Best Case Scenario 3% 6% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 11% 9% 4% 1%
Current Standings 2% 5% 7% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 6% 2%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 13% 8% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   Union beats Brown
 Worst Case Scenario
   Brown beats Union
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
WRi
Wins in Regulation
 WOSi
Wins in OT and SO
 LOSi
Losses in OT and SO
 LRi
Losses in Regulation
 Ptsi
Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR
 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 6**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10 11 12
16 of 16 100% 19 0 0 3 57 97% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 18 0 0 4 54 91% 9% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 17 0 0 5 51 72% 27% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 16 0 0 6 48 42% 47% 10% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 16 75% 15 0 0 7 45 14% 46% 33% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 16 69% 14 0 0 8 42 2% 19% 43% 30% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 16 63% 13 0 0 9 39 <1% 2% 17% 40% 32% 8% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 16 56% 12 0 0 10 36 <1% <1% 2% 13% 36% 35% 12% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 16 50% 11 0 0 11 33 X <1% <1% 1% 9% 32% 39% 16% 2% <1% <1% ^
7 of 16 44% 10 0 0 12 30 X X <1% <1% <1% 7% 30% 42% 18% 2% <1% <1%
6 of 16 38% 9 0 0 13 27 X X X <1% <1% <1% 6% 31% 44% 17% 2% <1%
5 of 16 31% 8 0 0 14 24 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 7% 36% 44% 12% 1%
4 of 16 25% 7 0 0 15 21 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 12% 46% 35% 6%
3 of 16 19% 6 0 0 16 18 X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 26% 51% 22%
2 of 16 13% 5 0 0 17 15 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 9% 46% 44%
1 of 16 6% 4 0 0 18 12 X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 30% 68%
0 of 16 0% 3 0 0 19 9 X X X X X X X X X <1% 12% 88%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament