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Mon Sep 30 5:30 pm

English Premier League - Week 8 of 41

Arsenal What If?

The Arsenal What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Arsenal What If?

Next Game - Southampton (0‑5‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 5 0 2 17 26% 22% 16% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 4 0 2 14 26% 21% 16% 11% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 4 1 2 14 19% 20% 17% 13% 9% 6% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 30% 21% 15% 11% 8% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 26% 21% 16% 11% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 19% 20% 17% 13% 9% 7% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Crystal Palace beats Liverpool
   Arsenal beats Southampton
   Fulham beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   Liverpool beats Crystal Palace
   Southampton beats Arsenal
   Manchester City beats Fulham
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
32 of 32 100% 36 0 2 110 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 34 2 2 104 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 32 91% 33 3 2 101 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 32 88% 32 4 2 98 85% 15% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 32 84% 31 5 2 95 71% 27% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 32 81% 30 6 2 92 54% 40% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 29 7 2 89 35% 49% 15% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 32 75% 28 8 2 86 19% 48% 28% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 32 72% 27 9 2 83 9% 38% 39% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 32 69% 26 10 2 80 3% 23% 42% 26% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 25 11 2 77 1% 10% 33% 37% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 32 63% 24 12 2 74 <1% 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 32 59% 23 13 2 71 <1% 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 32 56% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 2% 12% 31% 34% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 32 53% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 32% 31% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
16 of 32 50% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
15 of 32 47% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 32 44% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 32 41% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 32 38% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 32 34% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 34% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 32 31% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 34% 28% 11% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 32 28% 13 23 2 41 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 35% 28% 10% 2% <1%
8 of 32 25% 12 24 2 38 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 37% 27% 8% 1%
7 of 32 22% 11 25 2 35 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 25% 38% 23% 6%
6 of 32 19% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 30% 38% 22%
5 of 32 16% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 36% 48%
4 of 32 13% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 21% 76%
3 of 32 9% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 92%
0 of 32 0% 4 32 2 14 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round