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Sun Sep 14 3:30 pm

English Premier League - Week 6 of 41

Arsenal What If?

The Arsenal What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Arsenal What If?

Next Game - Manchester City (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 4 1 0 12 25% 22% 16% 11% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 3 1 0 9 24% 22% 16% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 9 19% 21% 16% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 28% 21% 15% 11% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 24% 22% 16% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 19% 21% 16% 12% 9% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Everton beats Liverpool
   Arsenal beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   Liverpool beats Everton
   Manchester City beats Arsenal
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
34 of 34 100% 37 1 0 111 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
32 of 34 94% 35 3 0 105 93% 7% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 34 91% 34 4 0 102 86% 14% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 34 88% 33 5 0 99 74% 25% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 34 85% 32 6 0 96 59% 38% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 34 82% 31 7 0 93 44% 47% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 34 79% 30 8 0 90 27% 51% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 34 76% 29 9 0 87 15% 47% 31% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 34 74% 28 10 0 84 7% 35% 40% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 34 71% 27 11 0 81 3% 22% 41% 27% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 34 68% 26 12 0 78 1% 11% 33% 37% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 34 65% 25 13 0 75 <1% 4% 21% 37% 27% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 34 62% 24 14 0 72 <1% 1% 10% 29% 36% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 34 59% 23 15 0 69 <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 31% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 34 56% 22 16 0 66 <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 34 53% 21 17 0 63 <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 27% 34% 20% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 34 50% 20 18 0 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 30% 32% 17% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 34 47% 19 19 0 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 31% 30% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 34 44% 18 20 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 34 41% 17 21 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 34 38% 16 22 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 33% 27% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 34 35% 15 23 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 34 32% 14 24 0 42 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 18% 33% 28% 12% 3% <1% <1%
10 of 34 29% 13 25 0 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 18% 33% 29% 13% 2% <1%
9 of 34 26% 12 26 0 36 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 30% 12% 3%
8 of 34 24% 11 27 0 33 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 31% 13%
7 of 34 21% 10 28 0 30 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 37% 38%
6 of 34 18% 9 29 0 27 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 70%
5 of 34 15% 8 30 0 24 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
0 of 34 0% 3 35 0 9 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League