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Sun Oct 26 4:45 pm

English Premier League - Week 12 of 41

Arsenal What If?

The Arsenal What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Arsenal What If?

Next Game - Burnley (3‑5‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 8 1 1 25 48% 22% 12% 7% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 7 1 1 22 45% 22% 12% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 7 2 1 22 38% 23% 14% 9% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 50% 21% 11% 7% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 45% 22% 12% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 37% 23% 14% 9% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Arsenal beats Burnley
   Bournemouth beats Manchester City
 Worst Case Scenario
   Burnley beats Arsenal
   Manchester City beats Bournemouth
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
29 of 29 100% 36 1 1 109 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 32 5 1 97 99% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 30 7 1 91 89% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 29 76% 29 8 1 88 77% 21% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 29 72% 28 9 1 85 58% 36% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 29 69% 27 10 1 82 37% 47% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 29 66% 26 11 1 79 18% 45% 29% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 29 62% 25 12 1 76 7% 30% 40% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 29 59% 24 13 1 73 2% 13% 34% 33% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 29 55% 23 14 1 70 <1% 3% 17% 34% 30% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 29 52% 22 15 1 67 <1% <1% 4% 17% 32% 29% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 29 48% 21 16 1 64 <1% <1% <1% 4% 16% 30% 29% 15% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 29 45% 20 17 1 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 28% 31% 17% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 29 41% 19 18 1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 11% 26% 32% 20% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 29 38% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 23% 32% 23% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 29 34% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 21% 33% 26% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 29 31% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 29 28% 15 22 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 33% 30% 12% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 29 24% 14 23 1 43 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2% <1%
6 of 29 21% 13 24 1 40 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 37% 30% 9% 1%
5 of 29 17% 12 25 1 37 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 23% 40% 26% 6%
4 of 29 14% 11 26 1 34 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 30% 40% 21%
3 of 29 10% 10 27 1 31 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 38% 48%
2 of 29 7% 9 28 1 28 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 22% 75%
1 of 29 3% 8 29 1 25 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8% 92%
0 of 29 0% 7 30 1 22 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League