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Sun Sep 14 3:30 pm

English Premier League - Week 6 of 41

Newcastle What If?

The Newcastle What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Newcastle What If?

Next Game - Bournemouth (3‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 2 1 2 8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 15%
Current Standings 1 1 2 5 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 21%
Lose Next Game 1 2 2 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 21%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 15%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 21%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 21%
Best Case Scenario
   Newcastle beats Bournemouth
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bournemouth beats Newcastle
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
34 of 34 100% 35 1 2 107 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
33 of 34 97% 34 2 2 104 93% 7% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
32 of 34 94% 33 3 2 101 84% 16% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
31 of 34 91% 32 4 2 98 70% 29% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 34 88% 31 5 2 95 52% 41% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
29 of 34 85% 30 6 2 92 35% 48% 15% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 34 82% 29 7 2 89 20% 47% 28% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 34 79% 28 8 2 86 10% 37% 39% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 34 76% 27 9 2 83 4% 24% 42% 25% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 34 74% 26 10 2 80 1% 13% 35% 36% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 34 71% 25 11 2 77 <1% 5% 23% 38% 26% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 34 68% 24 12 2 74 <1% 2% 11% 31% 36% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 34 65% 23 13 2 71 <1% <1% 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 34 62% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 34 59% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 29% 34% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 of 34 56% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 16% 32% 31% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
18 of 34 53% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 34 50% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 22% 34% 25% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 34 47% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 24% 34% 23% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 34 44% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 26% 33% 21% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 34 41% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 27% 33% 20% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 34 38% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 27% 34% 20% 5% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 34 35% 13 23 2 41 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 28% 33% 19% 5% 1% <1%
11 of 34 32% 12 24 2 38 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 5% <1%
10 of 34 29% 11 25 2 35 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 31% 34% 17% 4%
9 of 34 26% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 33% 35% 17%
8 of 34 24% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 37% 43%
7 of 34 21% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 22% 73%
6 of 34 18% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 92%
5 of 34 15% 6 30 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
0 of 34 0% 1 35 2 5 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League