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Sun May 17 11:15 pm

MLB - Week 9 of 27

Mets What If?

The Mets What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Mets play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mets What If?

Next Game - Nationals (23‑24)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 21 26 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 92%
Current Standings 20 26 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 93%
Lose Next Game 20 27 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 93%


Current Series - Nationals (23‑24) - 4 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Mets Sweeps 24 26 <1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% 89%
Current Standings 20 26 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 93%
Nationals Sweeps 20 30 <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 2% 95%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
116 of 116 100% 136 26 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
110 of 116 95% 130 32 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
100 of 116 86% 120 42 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
92 of 116 79% 112 50 95% 3% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
91 of 116 78% 111 51 93% 5% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
90 of 116 78% 110 52 90% 7% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
89 of 116 77% 109 53 86% 9% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1%
88 of 116 76% 108 54 80% 13% 1% 6% <1% <1% <1%
87 of 116 75% 107 55 75% 17% 1% 8% <1% <1% <1%
86 of 116 74% 106 56 68% 20% 1% 11% <1% <1% <1%
85 of 116 73% 105 57 60% 24% 2% 13% <1% <1% <1%
84 of 116 72% 104 58 52% 28% 3% 16% <1% <1% <1%
83 of 116 72% 103 59 44% 32% 5% 19% <1% <1% <1%
82 of 116 71% 102 60 34% 34% 7% 23% 1% <1% <1%
81 of 116 70% 101 61 28% 34% 10% 27% 1% <1% <1%
80 of 116 69% 100 62 22% 34% 12% 29% 2% <1% <1%
79 of 116 68% 99 63 15% 34% 14% 32% 4% <1% <1%
78 of 116 67% 98 64 11% 30% 17% 35% 7% <1% <1%
77 of 116 66% 97 65 6% 27% 20% 36% 10% 1% <1%
76 of 116 66% 96 66 4% 23% 21% 37% 13% 2% <1%
75 of 116 65% 95 67 2% 17% 23% 34% 19% 4% <1%
74 of 116 64% 94 68 1% 13% 23% 32% 23% 7% 1%
73 of 116 63% 93 69 1% 9% 22% 28% 29% 10% 1%
72 of 116 62% 92 70 <1% 6% 21% 23% 32% 15% 4%
71 of 116 61% 91 71 <1% 4% 18% 17% 32% 22% 7%
70 of 116 60% 90 72 <1% 2% 15% 12% 30% 27% 13%
69 of 116 59% 89 73 <1% 1% 12% 7% 26% 32% 21%
68 of 116 59% 88 74 <1% 1% 9% 4% 20% 33% 33%
67 of 116 58% 87 75 <1% <1% 6% 2% 14% 30% 46%
66 of 116 57% 86 76 <1% <1% 4% 1% 9% 24% 62%
65 of 116 56% 85 77 <1% <1% 3% <1% 5% 18% 74%
64 of 116 55% 84 78 <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% 11% 85%
63 of 116 54% 83 79 <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 6% 92%
60 of 116 52% 80 82 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
50 of 116 43% 70 92 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 of 116 34% 60 102 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
30 of 116 26% 50 112 X X <1% X X <1% >99%
20 of 116 17% 40 122 X X X X X X 100%
10 of 116 9% 30 132 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 116 0% 20 142 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs