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Sun Sep 14 10:45 pm

MLB - Week 27 of 28

Phillies What If?

The Phillies What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Phillies play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Phillies What If?

Next Game - Dodgers (84‑65)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 90 61 20% 79% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 89 61 15% 80% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^
Lose Next Game 89 62 10% 82% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^


Current Series - Dodgers (84‑65) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Phillies Sweeps 92 61 33% 67% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 89 61 15% 80% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^
Dodgers Sweeps 89 64 4% 77% 19% <1% <1% <1% ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 20% 79% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
Current Standings 15% 80% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^
Worst Case Scenario 10% 82% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^
Best Case Scenario
   Phillies beats Dodgers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Dodgers beats Phillies
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
12 of 12 100% 101 61 91% 9% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 100 62 77% 23% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 12 83% 99 63 56% 44% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 12 75% 98 64 35% 65% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 12 67% 97 65 17% 83% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 12 58% 96 66 7% 93% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 12 50% 95 67 2% 96% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 12 42% 94 68 1% 92% 8% ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 12 33% 93 69 <1% 77% 23% ^ ^ ^ ^
3 of 12 25% 92 70 <1% 49% 51% ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 12 17% 91 71 <1% 22% 78% ^ ^ ^ ^
1 of 12 8% 90 72 X 5% 95% ^ ^ ^ ^
0 of 12 0% 89 73 X <1% >99% <1% <1% <1% ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs