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Thu Jun 4 1:15 am

MLB - Week 11 of 27

Reds What If?

The Reds What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Reds play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Reds What If?

Next Game - Cardinals (32‑28)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 32 30 <1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 8% 76%
Current Standings 31 30 <1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 78%
Lose Next Game 31 31 <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 80%


Current Series - Cardinals (32‑28) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Reds Sweeps 34 30 <1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 9% 72%
Current Standings 31 30 <1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 78%
Cardinals Sweeps 31 33 <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 83%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
101 of 101 100% 132 30 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
100 of 101 99% 131 31 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
90 of 101 89% 121 41 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
82 of 101 81% 113 49 93% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
81 of 101 80% 112 50 90% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
80 of 101 79% 111 51 88% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
79 of 101 78% 110 52 84% 16% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
78 of 101 77% 109 53 79% 20% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
77 of 101 76% 108 54 75% 23% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
76 of 101 75% 107 55 68% 29% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
75 of 101 74% 106 56 62% 34% 3% 2% <1% <1% <1%
74 of 101 73% 105 57 56% 37% 5% 3% <1% <1% <1%
73 of 101 72% 104 58 48% 42% 6% 4% <1% <1% <1%
72 of 101 71% 103 59 42% 44% 8% 6% <1% <1% <1%
71 of 101 70% 102 60 36% 46% 10% 8% <1% <1% <1%
70 of 101 69% 101 61 29% 46% 13% 12% <1% <1% <1%
69 of 101 68% 100 62 21% 46% 17% 16% <1% <1% <1%
68 of 101 67% 99 63 16% 42% 20% 21% 1% <1% <1%
67 of 101 66% 98 64 11% 38% 24% 25% 2% <1% <1%
66 of 101 65% 97 65 8% 32% 27% 30% 3% <1% <1%
65 of 101 64% 96 66 5% 26% 27% 36% 6% <1% <1%
64 of 101 63% 95 67 3% 21% 28% 37% 10% 1% <1%
63 of 101 62% 94 68 1% 14% 28% 39% 15% 2% <1%
62 of 101 61% 93 69 1% 9% 25% 40% 22% 4% <1%
61 of 101 60% 92 70 <1% 6% 21% 35% 29% 8% 1%
60 of 101 59% 91 71 <1% 3% 17% 29% 35% 14% 3%
59 of 101 58% 90 72 <1% 1% 13% 22% 37% 20% 6%
58 of 101 57% 89 73 <1% 1% 9% 15% 35% 28% 12%
57 of 101 56% 88 74 <1% <1% 6% 9% 30% 32% 22%
56 of 101 55% 87 75 <1% <1% 4% 5% 22% 35% 34%
55 of 101 54% 86 76 <1% <1% 2% 3% 15% 31% 49%
54 of 101 53% 85 77 <1% <1% 1% 1% 9% 26% 64%
53 of 101 52% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 17% 77%
52 of 101 51% 83 79 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 86%
51 of 101 50% 82 80 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 93%
50 of 101 50% 81 81 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
40 of 101 40% 71 91 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
30 of 101 30% 61 101 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 101 20% 51 111 X X X X X X 100%
10 of 101 10% 41 121 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 101 0% 31 131 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs