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Wed Dec 11 12:45 am

SEC Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Texas A&M What If?

The Texas A&M Aggies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Texas A&M plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texas A&M What If?

Next Game - Texas (7‑2)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 1 0 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 1%
Current Standings 0 0 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2%
Lose Next Game 0 1 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Current Standings 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4%
Best Case Scenario
   Texas A&M beats Texas
   South Carolina beats Mississippi St.
   Vanderbilt beats LSU
 Worst Case Scenario
   Texas beats Texas A&M
   Mississippi St. beats South Carolina
   LSU beats Vanderbilt
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 97% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 86% 14% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 58% 35% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 23% 43% 27% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 19% 34% 29% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 2% 10% 25% 32% 22% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 27% 31% 19% 6% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 28% 31% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 30% 30% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 11% 2% <1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 2%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 33% 40% 15%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 44% 44%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 24% 75%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 7% 93%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1% 99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament