The Most Important Games for the Arkansas St. Red Wolves are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Red Wolves final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Arkansas St. Red Wolves fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Arkansas St. Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Arkansas St. (9‑4) vs James Madison (7‑7) |
318 | Arkansas St. Wins | 38% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| James Madison Wins | 27% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. (4‑10) vs Marshall (8‑5) |
32 | Georgia St. Wins | 37% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Marshall Wins | 35% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette (3‑10) vs South Alabama (10‑4) |
29 | LA Lafayette Wins | 37% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 36% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (4‑10) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (8‑6) |
16 | Old Dominion Wins | 36% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 35% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Texas State (8‑6) vs Troy (7‑5) |
14 | Texas State Wins | 38% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | 36% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (3‑11) vs Southern Miss (7‑7) |
11 | UL Monroe Wins | 36% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina (8‑6) vs Georgia Southern (10‑5) |
10 | Coastal Carolina Wins | 37% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 36% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||