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Wed May 13 1:00 am

WNBA - Week 2 of 21

Fever What If?

The Fever What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fever play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fever What If?

Next Game - Sparks (0‑1)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 1 1 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 60%
Current Standings 0 1 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 61%
Lose Next Game 0 2 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 62%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 60%
Current Standings 1% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 61%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 62%
Best Case Scenario
   Fever beats Sparks
 Worst Case Scenario
   Sparks beats Fever
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
43 of 43 100% 43 1 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
40 of 43 93% 40 4 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
38 of 43 88% 38 6 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
37 of 43 86% 37 7 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
36 of 43 84% 36 8 66% 31% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
35 of 43 81% 35 9 48% 43% 9% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
34 of 43 79% 34 10 30% 47% 21% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
33 of 43 77% 33 11 15% 42% 35% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
32 of 43 74% 32 12 7% 30% 41% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^
31 of 43 72% 31 13 2% 16% 39% 32% 10% 1% <1% <1% ^
30 of 43 70% 30 14 <1% 7% 28% 40% 21% 3% <1% <1% <1%
29 of 43 67% 29 15 <1% 3% 15% 37% 33% 11% 1% <1% <1%
28 of 43 65% 28 16 <1% 1% 6% 27% 38% 23% 5% <1% <1%
27 of 43 63% 27 17 <1% <1% 2% 14% 35% 35% 12% 1% <1%
26 of 43 60% 26 18 <1% <1% <1% 6% 25% 39% 24% 5% <1%
25 of 43 58% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 35% 35% 13% 2%
24 of 43 56% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 25% 39% 24% 6%
23 of 43 53% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 34% 35% 15%
22 of 43 51% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 38% 31%
21 of 43 49% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 34% 50%
20 of 43 47% 20 24 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 24% 70%
19 of 43 44% 19 25 X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 85%
18 of 43 42% 18 26 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 6% 94%
15 of 43 35% 15 29 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 43 23% 10 34 X X X X X X X X 100%
5 of 43 12% 5 39 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 43 0% 0 44 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs