NCAA Basketball - Week 6 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Is currently ranked below the cutline but still can win its conference tournament thus receiving an automatic NCAA tournament bid, and
Has a conference opponent ranked above the cutline that can also win that conference tournament.

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 46 and 47 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 127 teams in 13 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 13 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank	Team	ConferenceConf	MWP	Record		Probability of Winning Its Conference Tournament
Rank	Team	ConferenceConf	MWP	W	L	Probability of Winning Its Conference Tournament
48	Virginia	ACCACC	$MWP$	9	1	7%
54	Miami	ACCACC	$MWP$	8	2	5%
58	Notre Dame	ACCACC	$MWP$	8	3	5%
62	N.C. State	ACCACC	$MWP$	7	3	3%
64	Stanford	ACCACC	$MWP$	7	2	3%
69	Wake Forest	ACCACC	$MWP$	7	3	4%
70	Clemson	ACCACC	$MWP$	7	3	3%
110	Syracuse	ACCACC	$MWP$	5	3	2%
151	Florida St.	ACCACC	$MWP$	5	4	1%
171	Georgia Tech	ACCACC	$MWP$	6	4	1%
176	Pittsburgh	ACCACC	$MWP$	5	5	1%
232	Boston College	ACCACC	$MWP$	5	6	<1%

80	Florida Atlantic	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	7	3	13%
109	South Florida	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	6	4	12%
117	UAB	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	7	3	11%
125	Wichita St.	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	6	4	8%
137	Memphis	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	4	4	9%
145	North Texas	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	7	3	8%
156	Tulane	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	7	3	8%
235	Charlotte	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	4	6	2%
239	Temple	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	5	5	2%
242	Texas-San Antonio	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	4	5	1%
274	Rice	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	4	6	1%
296	E. Carolina	American AthleticAm. Athletic	$MWP$	3	6	1%

71	Dayton	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	7	3	9%
83	Davidson	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	7	2	7%
100	VCU	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	6	4	6%
111	Geo. Washington	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	8	3	6%
112	Rhode Island	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	7	4	5%
157	St. Joseph's	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	6	3	2%
182	Duquesne	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	6	4	2%
261	Fordham	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	7	4	1%
283	La Salle	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	4	6	<1%
318	Loyola Chicago	Atlantic 10Atl. 10	$MWP$	3	7	<1%

47	UCLA	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	7	2	3%
49	Washington	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	6	3	3%
66	Ohio St.	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	7	2	2%
67	Wisconsin	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	7	3	3%
87	Penn State	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	8	2	2%
127	Maryland	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	6	3	1%
139	NorthwesternN. Western	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	5	4	<1%
162	Minnesota	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	5	5	<1%
174	Rutgers	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	5	5	<1%
181	Oregon	Big 10Big 10	$MWP$	4	5	<1%

50	Baylor	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	7	2	4%
63	Arizona St.	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	7	2	3%
76	Utah	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	7	3	2%
97	TCU	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	6	3	2%
102	Kansas St.	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	6	4	1%
135	West Virginia	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	8	3	1%
136	Cincinnati	Big 12Big 12	$MWP$	6	3	1%

53	Butler	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	7	2	9%
55	Villanova	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	7	2	11%
94	Providence	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	7	4	6%
107	Xavier	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	7	3	6%
115	Georgetown	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	6	3	5%
128	Creighton	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	5	4	4%
166	DePaul	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	6	2	2%
206	Marquette	Big EastBig East	$MWP$	5	5	1%

91	UCSB	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	8	2	16%
103	Hawai'i	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	9	2	16%
104	UC Davis	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	5	3	12%
149	UC Irvine	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	7	4	9%
213	Cal Poly	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	5	6	3%
214	CSU Northridge	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	5	5	4%
227	UC Riverside	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	5	5	3%
258	CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	4	6	1%
282	CSU Fullerton	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	4	7	1%
332	Long Beach St.	Big WestBig West	$MWP$	2	9	<1%

77	Columbia	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	9	2	30%
173	PennsylvaniaPenn.	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	6	4	11%
191	Cornell	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	5	5	7%
246	Harvard	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	5	6	4%
272	Brown	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	5	7	2%
297	Dartmouth	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	3	5	2%
330	Princeton	Ivy LeagueIvy League	$MWP$	3	10	<1%

57	Miami OH	MACMAC	$MWP$	9	0	15%
60	Akron	MACMAC	$MWP$	8	2	19%
113	Kent State	MACMAC	$MWP$	9	2	9%
130	Bowling Green	MACMAC	$MWP$	7	3	7%
144	UMass	MACMAC	$MWP$	7	3	9%
165	Toledo	MACMAC	$MWP$	5	4	6%
184	Western Michigan	MACMAC	$MWP$	5	5	2%
188	Eastern Michigan	MACMAC	$MWP$	6	5	4%
230	Ohio	MACMAC	$MWP$	3	6	2%
284	Northern Illinois	MACMAC	$MWP$	3	5	1%
298	Central Michigan	MACMAC	$MWP$	3	6	1%
339	Ball State	MACMAC	$MWP$	3	7	<1%

81	Northern Iowa	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	7	2	16%
84	Illinois St.	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	7	2	16%
119	Murray State	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	7	3	12%
148	Southern Illinois	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	6	4	7%
172	Bradley	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	5	4	7%
198	Indiana St.	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	6	4	4%
219	Drake	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	6	4	4%
225	Valparaiso	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	6	3	4%
269	UIC	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	4	5	2%
285	Evansville	Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley	$MWP$	4	6	1%

59	Nevada	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	6	3	13%
72	Wyoming	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	8	2	10%
85	Colorado St.	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	7	2	12%
106	San Diego St.	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	5	3	9%
143	Grand Canyon	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	5	3	6%
167	UNLV	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	4	5	3%
195	Fresno St.	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	6	4	3%
208	San José State	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	5	5	2%
287	Air Force	Mountain WestMntn West	$MWP$	3	8	<1%

51	Arkansas	SECSEC	$MWP$	6	2	7%
52	Oklahoma	SECSEC	$MWP$	6	2	6%
61	Tennessee	SECSEC	$MWP$	7	3	5%
86	Florida	SECSEC	$MWP$	5	4	4%
96	Texas A&M	SECSEC	$MWP$	7	3	4%
98	Missouri	SECSEC	$MWP$	8	2	4%
133	South Carolina	SECSEC	$MWP$	6	3	2%
141	Kentucky	SECSEC	$MWP$	6	4	2%
146	Ole Miss	SECSEC	$MWP$	5	3	2%
147	Texas	SECSEC	$MWP$	6	3	2%
150	Mississippi St.Miss. St.	SECSEC	$MWP$	4	5	1%

90	Seattle	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	7	2	5%
99	Pacific	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	7	3	6%
114	San Francisco	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	6	3	4%
121	Loyola Marymount	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	7	3	5%
186	Portland	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	6	4	1%
223	Oregon St.	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	5	5	1%
268	Washington St.	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	3	6	<1%
306	San Diego	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	3	6	<1%
322	Pepperdine	West CoastWest Coast	$MWP$	3	7	<1%

Notes
X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny