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Fri Mar 6 5:15 pm

NCAA Basketball - Week 18 of 18

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers

A Line Mover is a team that

Simple put, if a line mover wins it conference tournament the cutline currently located between ranked teams 44 and 45 will move up one position, thus eliminating a team that would have received an NCAA Tournament bid based upon its rank. If your team is ranked on the bubble you want line-moving teams to lose in their conference tournament. The list contains 123 teams in 14 conferences, thus the cutline could theoretically move up 14 spots. The list size will quickly contract during the individual conference tournaments.

NCAA Basketball Tournament Line Movers
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record Probability of Winning
Its Conference Tournament
W L
50 N.C. State ACCACC $MWP$ 19 11 3%
51 California ACCACC $MWP$ 21 9 2%
54 SMU ACCACC $MWP$ 19 11 2%
56 Virginia Tech ACCACC $MWP$ 19 11 1%
58 Stanford ACCACC $MWP$ 19 11 1%
90 Florida St. ACCACC $MWP$ 16 14 1%
97 Wake Forest ACCACC $MWP$ 15 15 <1%
106 Syracuse ACCACC $MWP$ 15 15 <1%
140 Notre Dame ACCACC $MWP$ 13 17 <1%
204 Pittsburgh ACCACC $MWP$ 11 19 <1%
245 Boston College ACCACC $MWP$ 10 20 <1%
 
82 Wichita St. American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 20 10 18%
102 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 19 11 8%
130 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 17 13 3%
139 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 18 13 2%
143 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 17 13 2%
203 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 16 14 1%
208 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 15 15 1%
220 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 12 18 1%
274 E. Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic $MWP$ 11 19 <1%
 
59 Dayton Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 21 9 14%
63 George Mason Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 22 8 8%
84 St. Joseph's Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 20 10 8%
115 Davidson Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 18 12 4%
124 Geo. Washington Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 17 13 3%
133 Rhode Island Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 14 2%
160 Duquesne Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 14 2%
182 St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 15 15 1%
193 Richmond Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 15 15 1%
212 Fordham Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 16 14 1%
269 La Salle Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 9 21 <1%
315 Loyola Chicago Atlantic 10Atl. 10 $MWP$ 7 23 <1%
 
47 Iowa Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 20 10 1%
52 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 19 11 2%
66 Indiana Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 18 12 1%
72 USC Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 18 12 1%
103 Washington Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 15 15 <1%
131 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 14 16 <1%
142 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 13 17 <1%
194 Penn State Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 12 18 <1%
195 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 12 18 <1%
197 Oregon Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 11 19 <1%
200 Maryland Big 10Big 10 $MWP$ 11 18 <1%
 
65 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 18 12 1%
71 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 17 13 1%
74 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 16 14 <1%
80 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 17 13 1%
83 Colorado Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 17 13 1%
92 Baylor Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 15 15 <1%
178 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 12 18 <1%
216 Utah Big 12Big 12 $MWP$ 10 20 <1%
 
62 Seton Hall Big EastBig East $MWP$ 20 10 8%
107 Creighton Big EastBig East $MWP$ 15 16 2%
120 Butler Big EastBig East $MWP$ 15 15 1%
121 DePaul Big EastBig East $MWP$ 16 14 2%
132 Providence Big EastBig East $MWP$ 14 16 1%
155 Xavier Big EastBig East $MWP$ 14 16 1%
173 Georgetown Big EastBig East $MWP$ 13 17 1%
221 Marquette Big EastBig East $MWP$ 11 19 <1%
 
77 Hofstra CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 21 10 17%
89 Charleston CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 21 10 18%
104 William & Mary CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 19 11 6%
141 Towson CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 17 14 5%
165 Monmouth CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 17 14 8%
186 Stony Brook CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 17 14 2%
202 Drexel CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 16 15 3%
215 Campbell CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 14 17 2%
232 Elon CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 14 17 1%
263 Hampton CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 13 18 <1%
279 N. Carolina A&T CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 11 18 <1%
329 NortheasternN. Eastern CoastalCoastal $MWP$ 6 23 <1%
 
123 PennsylvaniaPenn. Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 15 11 19%
138 Harvard Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 16 11 15%
171 Cornell Ivy LeagueIvy League $MWP$ 14 12 11%
 
69 Kent State MACMAC $MWP$ 22 8 14%
158 Toledo MACMAC $MWP$ 16 14 5%
181 Buffalo MACMAC $MWP$ 17 13 2%
190 Bowling Green MACMAC $MWP$ 17 13 3%
199 UMass MACMAC $MWP$ 16 15 2%
217 Ohio MACMAC $MWP$ 15 15 2%
304 Central Michigan MACMAC $MWP$ 10 20 <1%
 
88 Murray State Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 20 11 13%
94 Illinois St. Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 20 11 11%
98 Bradley Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 20 11 12%
99 Northern Iowa Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 20 12 10%
172 Valparaiso Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 18 14 5%
174 UIC Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 17 14 4%
264 Drake Missouri ValleyMissouri Valley $MWP$ 13 19 1%
 
49 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 22 8 16%
60 San Diego St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 19 10 15%
64 Boise St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 19 11 7%
73 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 18 11 10%
75 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 20 10 8%
86 Grand Canyon Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 19 11 8%
108 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 16 14 3%
114 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 17 13 2%
223 Fresno St. Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 13 17 1%
300 San José State Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 8 22 <1%
353 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West $MWP$ 3 27 <1%
 
45 Kentucky SECSEC $MWP$ 19 11 4%
48 Missouri SECSEC $MWP$ 20 10 4%
57 Texas A&M SECSEC $MWP$ 20 10 3%
68 Texas SECSEC $MWP$ 17 12 2%
70 Auburn SECSEC $MWP$ 16 14 2%
93 Oklahoma SECSEC $MWP$ 16 14 1%
134 LSU SECSEC $MWP$ 15 15 <1%
154 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC $MWP$ 13 17 <1%
191 Ole Miss SECSEC $MWP$ 12 18 <1%
206 South Carolina SECSEC $MWP$ 12 18 <1%
 
46 Stephen F. Austin SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 27 4 42%
166 UT-Rio Grande Valley SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 18 13 6%
209 New Orleans SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 14 17 2%
211 Texas A&M C.C. SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 17 14 4%
238 Nicholls St. SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 13 18 1%
293 Houston Christian SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 12 19 <1%
321 Northwestern St.NWestrn St SouthlandSouth-land $MWP$ 10 21 <1%
 
113 Seattle West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 19 12 <1%
145 San Francisco West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 16 14 1%
162 Pacific West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 17 14 <1%
168 Oregon St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 16 15 1%
226 Portland West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 14 18 <1%
230 Washington St. West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 12 19 <1%
277 San Diego West CoastWest Coast $MWP$ 12 20 <1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win its conference tournament
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - green number indicates the team controls its destiny
  • 50% - probability the team will win its conference tournament - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny