The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 0 | 0 | 36% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 10% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 16% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 40% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| Current Standings | 35% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 10% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 33% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 10% |
|
Best Case Scenario Eagles beats Jaguars Jets beats Browns Patriots beats Raiders |
Worst Case Scenario Jaguars beats Eagles Browns beats Jets Raiders beats Patriots |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 13 of 13 | 100% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 13 | 92% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 97% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 13 | 85% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 81% | 17% | 1% | <1% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 13 | 77% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 49% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 9 of 13 | 69% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 18% | 40% | 20% | 3% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 13 | 62% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 20% | 26% | 11% | 30% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 of 13 | 54% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 5% | 17% | 17% | 26% | 25% | 8% | 1% |
| 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16% | 12% | 30% | 24% | 11% |
| 5 of 13 | 38% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 15% | 30% | 42% |
| 4 of 13 | 31% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 81% |
| 3 of 13 | 23% | 7 | 10 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
| 2 of 13 | 15% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 13 | 8% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 13 | 0% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |