The Most Important Games for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fighting Irish final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Notre Dame Fighting Irish fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Notre Dame Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Notre Dame (12‑14) vs Pittsburgh (9‑17) |
40 | Notre Dame Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 20% | 57% | 12% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Pittsburgh Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 36% | 52% | ||
| Florida St. (12‑13) vs Boston College (9‑16) |
5 | Florida St. Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 16% | 47% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Boston College Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 42% | 35% | ||
| Clemson (20‑6) vs Wake Forest (13‑12) |
2 | Clemson Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 17% | 43% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 11% | 51% | 32% | ||
| Virginia (22‑3) vs Georgia Tech (11‑15) |
2 | Virginia Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 16% | 46% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 15% | 44% | 33% | ||
| Duke (23‑2) vs Syracuse (15‑11) |
1 | Duke Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Syracuse Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16% | 45% | 32% | ||
| Miami (20‑5) vs Virginia Tech (17‑9) |
1 | Miami Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Virginia Tech Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16% | 45% | 32% | ||
| N.C. State (18‑8) vs North Carolina (20‑5) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16% | 46% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| North Carolina Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| California (18‑8) vs Stanford (16‑10) |
0 | California Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 16% | 43% | 32% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Stanford Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 49% | 32% | ||
| SMU (17‑8) vs Louisville (19‑6) |
0 | SMU Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16% | 46% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 46% | 31% | ||
| Louisville Wins | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15% | 47% | 31% | ||