The UMBC Retrievers What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UMBC plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 9% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 8% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 5% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 5% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 6% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 9% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| Current Standings | 8% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 5% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 6% |
|
Best Case Scenario UMBC beats Binghamton |
Worst Case Scenario Binghamton beats UMBC |
||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 15 | 1 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 14 | 2 | 96% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 | 3 | 80% | 20% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 | 4 | 46% | 47% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 11 | 5 | 14% | 52% | 31% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 10 | 6 | 1% | 21% | 49% | 25% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 | 7 | <1% | 3% | 24% | 48% | 23% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 | 8 | X | <1% | 3% | 26% | 47% | 22% | 2% | <1% | ^ |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 7 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 3% | 28% | 47% | 20% | 2% | <1% |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 6 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 5% | 32% | 46% | 16% | 1% |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 38% | 44% | 11% |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 12% | 50% | 38% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 3 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 27% | 72% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 2 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 6% | 94% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 1 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | >99% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |