PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Dec 10 10:45 pm

Atlantic Sun Basketball - Week 6 of 17

North Florida What If?

The North Florida Ospreys What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how North Florida plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

North Florida What If?

Next Game - Austin Peay (4‑5)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10 NT
Win Next Game 1 0 23% 17% 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1%
Current Standings 0 0 20% 16% 14% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 2%
Lose Next Game 0 1 13% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10 NT
Best Case Scenario 23% 17% 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1%
Current Standings 20% 16% 14% 11% 10% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 2%
Worst Case Scenario 13% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2%
Best Case Scenario
   North Florida beats Austin Peay
Worst Case Scenario
   Austin Peay beats North Florida
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7 8 9 10 NT
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 92% 8% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 71% 28% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 38% 48% 13% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 12% 42% 37% 9% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 2% 17% 41% 32% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 3% 18% 40% 31% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 2% 17% 39% 32% 9% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% 2% 15% 37% 34% 11% 1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X <1% 1% 11% 35% 37% 13% 2% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X <1% 1% 9% 32% 38% 17% 3%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X <1% <1% 8% 30% 41% 21%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 32% 60%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 9% 90%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes 1st round bye and 2nd home court advantage in the conference tournament
  • ** denotes 1st round bye in the conference tournament